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抄底美股前

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先问自己7个问题

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美股连续暴跌

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纳斯达克三天跌了将近5%

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标普500跌破6,800点

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年内收益全部归零

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数字货币跌得更惨

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比特币一度接近6万美金

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现在反弹到6.4万美金左右

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以太坊也一度触及1,776美金

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现在反弹到1,890美金

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社交媒体上已经炸锅了

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一半人在喊完了

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完了另一半人在喊打折了

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快冲但是

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我今天要跟你说的是

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这两种反应都是错的

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因为他们都犯了同一个错误

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没有先搞清楚为什么跌

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就急着决定要不要买

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这就像你看到一栋房子突然降价30%

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你兴奋的冲过去要下单

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但你连这房子降价是因为打折促销

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还是因为地基塌了都没搞清楚

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嗨我是王利杰

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今天这期视频

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我不是来给你喊抄底或逃命的口号的

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我是来带你思考的

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我要带你穿透市场的噪音

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用7个层层递进的核心问题

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构建一套完整的分析框架

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这7个问题不是并列的

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他们是一个三层过滤器

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第一层

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搞清楚这轮下跌的病因是什么

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治好了没有

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第二层看看经济的体制基本面

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到底是在变好还是变坏

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第三层检查有没有药

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也就是流动性

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美联储会不会放水救场

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最后我们再听听市场自己在说什么

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只有把这7个问题都想明白了

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你才有资格谈要不要抄底这件事

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我们直接进入第一层病因诊断

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问题一这轮下跌的真正病因是什么

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AI资本支出的万亿黑洞

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很多人把这几天的下跌

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归结为市场调整

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技术性回调

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好像只是正常的呼吸节奏

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但如果你仔细看这轮抛售的导火索

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你会发现一个非常清晰的主线

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科技巨头们的财报

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正在集体揭示一个令人不安的真相

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就在昨天

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亚马逊发布了第四季度财报

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营收2,134亿美元

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确实超预期了

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AWS云业务增长24%

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也是13个季度以来最快的

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但盘后股价直接暴跌超过10%

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为什么因为亚马逊宣布

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2026年的资本支出预算是2,000亿美元

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市场预期是多少

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1,460亿 直接超了37%

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这不是亚马逊一家的问题

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前一天 Alphabeta 公布

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2026年资本支出指引

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是1,750亿到1,850亿美元

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是2025年的将近两倍

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再往前

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meta 给出的指引是1,150亿到1,350亿

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微软虽然没有给出具体的年度数字

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但它的毛利率

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已经压缩到了三年来最低水平

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68%出头而且财报发布后

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股价一度暴跌14%

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把这四家加起来

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2026年仅AI相关的资本支出

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就逼近7,000亿美元

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你没听错

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7,000亿美元

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这是什么概念

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这已经超过了很多中等发达国家

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一年的GDP总量

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但这里面有一个根本性的矛盾

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花钱的速度是指数级的

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赚钱的速度是线性的

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让我用一个最简单的方式

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来解释这个矛盾

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你花了7,000亿美元

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建了一堆数据中心

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买了数以万计的英伟达GPU

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这些GPU的折旧周期通常只有3-4年

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也就是说

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从你把钱花出去的那一刻起

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一个巨大的倒计时就开始了

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你必须在3-4年内

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用这些GPU产生的收入把投入赚回来

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否则你就是在焚烧现金

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而市场现在

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最大的灵魂拷问

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就是那个能产生千亿美元级利润的

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杀手级AI应用

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到底在哪里

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copilot有了

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AI搜索有了

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AI广告推荐引擎也在进化

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但这些增量收入加起来

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够填那个7,000亿的深坑吗

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至少现在答案还不清楚

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更让人担心的是这些巨额支出的性质

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仔细想想

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Alphabets为什么要把资本支出翻倍

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不是因为

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他看到了一个全新的千亿美元市场

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等着他去征服

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而是因为

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深层式AI

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正在侵蚀他最核心的搜索业务

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护城河他必须花双倍的钱

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才能保住原来的地盘

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这不是进攻

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这是防御

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当一家公司需要花双倍的钱

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来维持同样的市场地位时

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投资资本回报率的压缩

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就是数学上的必然

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所以

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这轮下跌的第一个病因非常清楚

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市场正在重新定价AI的投资回报周期

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过去两年

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市场假设每一美元投入AI的钱

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都能迅速变成利润

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现在这个假设正在被现实无情的拆解

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我们正处在一个尴尬的中间地带

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基础设施已经建了一大堆

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但商业化变现还远没跟上

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英伟达作为卖产人

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当然还在赚的盆满钵满

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但下游的买产人

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这些超大规模云厂商

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实际上是在用自己的资产负债表

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做赌注赌一个尚未兑现的未来

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问题二

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还有没有尚未被市场定价的外生冲击

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如果说AI资本支出是内生性风险

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那地缘政治就是外生性风险

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而且这一块的风险溢价

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市场几乎完全没有计入

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首先是委内瑞拉

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今年1月3日

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美国

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在委内瑞拉发起了代号绝对决心

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的军事行动

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直接导致了马杜罗政权的更迭

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短期来看

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委内瑞拉石油出口

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在1月份激增到了每天80万桶

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原油价格被压到了63美元一桶附近

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低油价对通胀当然是好消息

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但问题是历史反复告诉我们

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政权更迭之后的国家

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往往会陷入长期的内部动荡

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如果委内瑞拉局势失控

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油价会有报复性反弹

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而且低油价本身也是一把双刃剑

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美国本土的页岩油生产商利润受损

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能源板块是标普500的重要组成部分

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盈利能力会下降

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然后是一个很多人忽视了的风险

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美欧之间

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围绕格林兰岛问题的贸易争端

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特朗普因为购岛意愿受阻

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威胁对8个欧洲国家征收惩罚性关税

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虽然近期有所缓和

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但这种交易型外交风格

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让贸易政策变得极度不可预测

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要知道标普500成分股公司

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大约40%的收入来自美国以外

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其中欧洲是核心市场

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一旦关税大棒真的落下

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你会看到一个恶性循环的出现

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关税推高通胀

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通胀让央行不敢降息

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不降息就杀估值

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这个循环一旦启动

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破坏力是几何级数的

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而当前的市场估值

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完全没有对这些尾部风险进行定价

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市场在假设一个地缘政治

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真空的完美世界

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这种定价方式

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本身就是一个巨大的风险

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好病因诊断完毕

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两个核心病因

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第一AI投资回报周期被重新定价

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第二地缘政治风险溢价几乎为零

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现在我们进入第二层

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检查经济的体制问题

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三

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经济的地基劳动力市场到底裂了没有

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就在今天

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美国劳工统计局

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发布了最新的 JOLTS 报告

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也就是职位空缺和劳动力流动调查

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12月的职位空缺数是多少

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654万市场预期是720万

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11月的数据还被大幅下修到690万

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654万是什么概念

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这是2020年9月以来的最低水平

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比预期足足少了将近70万个岗位

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为什么这个数据如此重要

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因为职位空缺

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是就业市场最敏感的先行指标

217
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在企业真正开始大规模裁员之前

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他们首先做的事情是冻结招聘

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职位空缺的骤降

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就是企业信心崩塌的最直接证据

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而更令人不安的

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是一个结构性的变化

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根据今天的报告

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12月份

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美国有750万失业人口在积极找工作

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但只有650万个职位空缺

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也就是说

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求职者的数量

229
00:07:32,133 --> 00:07:34,266
已经超过了职位空缺的数量

230
00:07:34,266 --> 00:07:36,033
多出了将近100万人

231
00:07:36,100 --> 00:07:37,900
这是剔除疫情时期之后

232
00:07:37,900 --> 00:07:40,266
2017年以来最大的缺口

233
00:07:40,266 --> 00:07:42,900
再看另一个关键指标离职率

234
00:07:42,933 --> 00:07:44,666
离职率维持在2%

235
00:07:44,666 --> 00:07:46,900
低于2019年的平均水平

236
00:07:46,900 --> 00:07:48,066
这意味着什么

237
00:07:48,066 --> 00:07:49,733
人们不敢辞职了

238
00:07:49,733 --> 00:07:52,800
当劳动者感到跳槽变得困难和危险时

239
00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:54,133
他们会做两件事

240
00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:56,733
第一紧紧抱住现在的工作不放

241
00:07:56,733 --> 00:07:58,833
第二削减非必要开支

242
00:07:58,866 --> 00:08:01,866
第一件事会导致工资增长动力枯竭

243
00:08:01,866 --> 00:08:04,300
第二件事会直接打击消费

244
00:08:04,300 --> 00:08:07,100
而消费占美国GDP的70%

245
00:08:07,133 --> 00:08:08,933
再叠加今天另一组数据

246
00:08:08,933 --> 00:08:12,500
初次申请失业金人数上升到23.1万

247
00:08:12,500 --> 00:08:15,666
1月份企业裁员公告数量达到了10.8万

248
00:08:15,666 --> 00:08:18,533
创下2009年1月以来同期最高

249
00:08:18,533 --> 00:08:20,500
劳动力市场不是略有降温

250
00:08:20,500 --> 00:08:21,433
它是在结冰

251
00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:22,800
你可能会说

252
00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:25,000
但失业率才4.4%啊

253
00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:26,100
看起来还行

254
00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:28,466
这就涉及到一个非常重要的认知

255
00:08:28,466 --> 00:08:30,866
失业率是一个滞后指标

256
00:08:30,866 --> 00:08:32,533
它就像汽车的后视镜

257
00:08:32,533 --> 00:08:34,300
告诉你已经走过的路

258
00:08:34,300 --> 00:08:37,000
而职位空缺离职率裁员公告

259
00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:40,200
这些是挡风玻璃告诉你前方的路况

260
00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:42,133
现在挡风玻璃上看到的

261
00:08:42,133 --> 00:08:44,633
是一条越来越窄越来越滑的路

262
00:08:44,633 --> 00:08:46,633
历史经验反复告诉我们

263
00:08:46,633 --> 00:08:48,466
当先行指标和滞后指标

264
00:08:48,466 --> 00:08:50,000
出现严重背离时

265
00:08:50,033 --> 00:08:52,800
最终的赢家几乎总是先行指标

266
00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:53,633
GDP数据

267
00:08:53,633 --> 00:08:56,233
可能还在描绘软着陆的美好图景

268
00:08:56,300 --> 00:08:57,333
但先行指标

269
00:08:57,333 --> 00:08:59,433
已经在指向一个更冷的冬天

270
00:08:59,533 --> 00:09:02,233
问题四现在的股价到底有多贵

271
00:09:02,233 --> 00:09:04,700
我们在为一个什么样的完美世界买单

272
00:09:04,700 --> 00:09:06,900
搞清楚了劳动力市场的裂痕之后

273
00:09:06,900 --> 00:09:09,533
我们必须回答一个冷酷的算术问题

274
00:09:09,533 --> 00:09:11,433
即便经历了连续的下跌

275
00:09:11,433 --> 00:09:13,466
股票现在到底贵不贵

276
00:09:13,466 --> 00:09:15,033
答案是贵的离谱

277
00:09:15,066 --> 00:09:16,600
截至2月5日收盘

278
00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:19,233
标普50评报6,798点

279
00:09:19,233 --> 00:09:21,033
年内收益已经转负

280
00:09:21,066 --> 00:09:22,500
但即便跌了这么多

281
00:09:22,500 --> 00:09:25,466
前瞻市盈率依然维持在22倍左右

282
00:09:25,466 --> 00:09:26,800
这个数字单独看

283
00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:29,400
你可能觉得只是略高于历史均值

284
00:09:29,466 --> 00:09:31,633
但一旦放到当前的利率环境中

285
00:09:31,633 --> 00:09:34,000
它的危险程度就暴露无遗了

286
00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:36,266
我们来看一个更有穿透力的指标

287
00:09:36,266 --> 00:09:37,333
席勒市盈率

288
00:09:37,333 --> 00:09:40,733
也叫CAB它是经过周期调整的市盈率

289
00:09:40,733 --> 00:09:43,133
能滤掉短期盈利波动的干扰

290
00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:45,666
当前的 CAPE 是40倍出头

291
00:09:45,733 --> 00:09:46,933
我们回顾一下历史

292
00:09:46,933 --> 00:09:49,833
看看 CAPE 在这个水平意味着什么

293
00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:52,266
2000年互联网泡沫顶峰

294
00:09:52,266 --> 00:09:54,233
CAPE 大约44倍

295
00:09:54,233 --> 00:09:57,333
当时10年期国债收益率是6%点

296
00:09:57,433 --> 00:09:58,400
结果大家知道了

297
00:09:58,400 --> 00:09:59,600
纳斯达克崩盘

298
00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:00,800
数年熊市

299
00:10:00,866 --> 00:10:02,800
2021年疫情后狂欢

300
00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:04,666
CAPE 大约38倍

301
00:10:04,666 --> 00:10:08,233
但那时10年期国债收益率只有1.5%

302
00:10:08,233 --> 00:10:09,433
资金几乎免费

303
00:10:09,433 --> 00:10:11,000
高估值有合理性

304
00:10:11,133 --> 00:10:13,100
今天 CAPE 是40倍

305
00:10:13,100 --> 00:10:16,400
但10年期国债收益率是4.28%

306
00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:17,533
你看出问题了吗

307
00:10:17,533 --> 00:10:18,633
我们的估值水平

308
00:10:18,633 --> 00:10:20,800
已经超过了2021年的疯狂

309
00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:22,666
逼近2000年的顶峰

310
00:10:22,666 --> 00:10:25,600
但资金成本比那两个时期都要高得多

311
00:10:25,633 --> 00:10:27,733
这就引出了一个对专业投资者来说

312
00:10:27,733 --> 00:10:31,066
最致命的信号股权风险溢价的蒸发

313
00:10:31,066 --> 00:10:32,800
什么是股权风险溢价

314
00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:33,833
简单说就是

315
00:10:33,833 --> 00:10:36,900
你买股票比买国债多赚的那部分回报

316
00:10:36,900 --> 00:10:39,133
作为你承担额外风险的补偿

317
00:10:39,133 --> 00:10:41,000
现在这个数字是多少

318
00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:43,800
我们算一下标普500的盈利收益率

319
00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:45,433
也就是市盈率的倒数

320
00:10:45,433 --> 00:10:47,400
大约是4.5%

321
00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:50,933
10年期国债收益率是4.28%

322
00:10:50,933 --> 00:10:52,000
差值是多少

323
00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:55,333
0.22% 不到1/4个百分点

324
00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:56,533
这意味着什么

325
00:10:56,533 --> 00:10:58,100
你为了承担经济衰退

326
00:10:58,100 --> 00:11:00,333
地缘战争AI技术瓶颈

327
00:11:00,333 --> 00:11:01,400
企业盈利下滑

328
00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:03,400
等一系列巨大的不确定性

329
00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:06,466
得到的额外补偿只有区区0.22%

330
00:11:06,466 --> 00:11:07,833
在金融教科书上

331
00:11:07,833 --> 00:11:10,333
这叫做极度不合理的风险收益比

332
00:11:10,433 --> 00:11:11,200
过去10年

333
00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:13,000
有一个非常流行的投资口号

334
00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:14,600
叫做TINA

335
00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:16,466
there is no alternative

336
00:11:16,466 --> 00:11:17,533
别无选择

337
00:11:17,533 --> 00:11:18,833
意思是利率太低了

338
00:11:18,833 --> 00:11:21,066
不买股票你没地方放钱

339
00:11:21,066 --> 00:11:23,800
但现在游戏规则已经彻底变了

340
00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:24,733
现金类资产

341
00:11:24,733 --> 00:11:27,433
能提供4%以上的无风险收益

342
00:11:27,433 --> 00:11:30,266
高等级公司债能提供5%以上

343
00:11:30,266 --> 00:11:32,200
波动性还远低于股票

344
00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:34,900
一个新的口号诞生了 TARA

345
00:11:34,900 --> 00:11:36,833
there are reasonable alternatives

346
00:11:36,833 --> 00:11:38,400
有合理的替代方案了

347
00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:40,666
在这种极度压缩的估值体系下

348
00:11:40,666 --> 00:11:43,233
市场对立空消息的容忍度为零

349
00:11:43,333 --> 00:11:44,733
任何一点点坏消息

350
00:11:44,733 --> 00:11:47,333
比如我们前面讲的资本支出超预期

351
00:11:47,333 --> 00:11:48,800
劳动力市场降温

352
00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:51,066
都可能成为引发大幅调整的导火索

353
00:11:51,866 --> 00:11:53,266
而要让股权风险溢价

354
00:11:53,266 --> 00:11:54,933
回归到历史正常水平

355
00:11:54,933 --> 00:11:57,266
通常需要300-400个基点

356
00:11:57,266 --> 00:12:00,600
那就只有两条路要么国债收益率暴跌

357
00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:02,333
通常意味着深度衰退

358
00:12:02,333 --> 00:12:05,600
要么股价大幅下跌来提高盈利收益率

359
00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:06,666
无论哪条路

360
00:12:06,666 --> 00:12:08,800
对当前持仓的投资者来说

361
00:12:08,800 --> 00:12:09,900
都不是好消息

362
00:12:10,100 --> 00:12:11,900
好第二层体检做完了

363
00:12:11,900 --> 00:12:13,133
劳动力市场在裂

364
00:12:13,133 --> 00:12:14,433
估值在天上飞

365
00:12:14,433 --> 00:12:17,400
现在进入最关键的第三层有没有药

366
00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:20,000
问题五美联储会放水救场吗

367
00:12:20,033 --> 00:12:21,200
在2025年底

368
00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:23,733
市场还沉浸在一种美好的幻觉中

369
00:12:23,733 --> 00:12:27,033
美联储会在2026年开启激进的降息周期

370
00:12:27,033 --> 00:12:28,933
大水漫灌拯救一切

371
00:12:28,933 --> 00:12:30,800
然而刚刚过去的1月底

372
00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:32,133
美联储议息会议

373
00:12:32,133 --> 00:12:34,266
给这个幻想泼了一盆冰水

374
00:12:34,300 --> 00:12:38,266
基准利率维持在3.50%到3.75%不变

375
00:12:38,266 --> 00:12:39,900
这个结果本身不意外

376
00:12:39,933 --> 00:12:42,400
真正令市场胆寒的是两件事

377
00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:44,400
第一件美联储的措辞

378
00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:47,333
声明中明确释放了鹰派暂停的信号

379
00:12:47,333 --> 00:12:49,466
美联储理事鲍曼等人的讲话

380
00:12:49,466 --> 00:12:51,233
进一步强化了这个立场

381
00:12:51,300 --> 00:12:53,433
通胀没有被完全驯服

382
00:12:53,433 --> 00:12:56,400
12月CPI环比上涨0.3%

383
00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:58,733
核心服务业通胀依然顽固

384
00:12:58,800 --> 00:12:59,800
美联储内部

385
00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:03,300
对重蹈1970年代覆辙的恐惧根深蒂固

386
00:13:03,333 --> 00:13:05,900
过早放松导致通胀死灰复燃

387
00:13:05,900 --> 00:13:08,833
然后被迫进行更痛苦的二次紧缩

388
00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:10,866
他们宁可晚一步慢一点

389
00:13:10,866 --> 00:13:12,266
也不愿意冒这个险

390
00:13:12,333 --> 00:13:14,533
另外我们昨天刚刚发布的视频

391
00:13:14,533 --> 00:13:17,333
美股SAAS末日背后的三重风暴

392
00:13:17,333 --> 00:13:20,233
AI颠覆、估值泡沫、流动性陷阱

393
00:13:20,233 --> 00:13:22,233
里面也有更详细的解读

394
00:13:22,500 --> 00:13:23,100
第二件

395
00:13:23,100 --> 00:13:26,333
凯文沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席

396
00:13:26,500 --> 00:13:27,033
沃什

397
00:13:27,033 --> 00:13:29,800
是一个已知的小资产负债表倡导者

398
00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:32,666
他更倾向于缩减美联储的资产规模

399
00:13:32,666 --> 00:13:34,833
对降息持更谨慎的态度

400
00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:35,900
这个人事变动

401
00:13:35,900 --> 00:13:37,466
本身就在重新锚定

402
00:13:37,466 --> 00:13:39,866
市场对未来货币政策的预期

403
00:13:39,900 --> 00:13:41,866
之前我们发布过一期视频

404
00:13:41,866 --> 00:13:45,500
标题就叫凯文沃什上任降息但不放水

405
00:13:45,666 --> 00:13:47,033
目前市场共识是

406
00:13:47,033 --> 00:13:49,433
2026年可能还有两次降息

407
00:13:49,533 --> 00:13:50,333
但你注意

408
00:13:50,333 --> 00:13:51,933
美联储利率期货显示

409
00:13:51,933 --> 00:13:55,666
3月份按兵不动的概率已经超过75%

410
00:13:55,666 --> 00:13:58,066
降息远没有你想象的那么近

411
00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:00,633
问题6美元流动性的总阀门

412
00:14:00,633 --> 00:14:02,500
到底是开着还是关着

413
00:14:02,533 --> 00:14:04,733
很多人只盯着联邦基金利率

414
00:14:04,733 --> 00:14:06,500
以为降息就是放水

415
00:14:06,533 --> 00:14:07,433
但实际上

416
00:14:07,433 --> 00:14:09,600
流动性是一个多维度的概念

417
00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:11,533
利率只是其中一个维度

418
00:14:11,633 --> 00:14:14,233
你还必须看另外几个关键的阀门

419
00:14:14,266 --> 00:14:16,300
第一个阀门量化紧缩

420
00:14:16,333 --> 00:14:18,500
美联储的QT仍在继续

421
00:14:18,633 --> 00:14:21,666
他每个月都在按计划缩减资产负债表

422
00:14:21,666 --> 00:14:23,900
从金融系统中抽走流动性

423
00:14:23,933 --> 00:14:26,033
这就像一边往池子里注水

424
00:14:26,033 --> 00:14:27,300
通过维持低利率

425
00:14:27,300 --> 00:14:29,133
一边在池底拔开塞子

426
00:14:29,133 --> 00:14:30,533
通过QT放水

427
00:14:30,533 --> 00:14:31,666
这效果是什么

428
00:14:31,666 --> 00:14:32,933
水位在下降

429
00:14:32,933 --> 00:14:34,000
第二个阀门

430
00:14:34,033 --> 00:14:35,900
美国财政部的国债供应

431
00:14:35,900 --> 00:14:38,100
为了资助庞大的财政赤字

432
00:14:38,100 --> 00:14:40,533
以及应对潜在贸易战的额外开支

433
00:14:40,533 --> 00:14:42,400
财政部正在向市场倾泻

434
00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:43,933
海量的国债供应

435
00:14:43,933 --> 00:14:46,466
而美联储已经不再是买家了

436
00:14:46,466 --> 00:14:48,900
海外买家的需求因为地缘政治因素

437
00:14:48,900 --> 00:14:50,133
也变得不稳定

438
00:14:50,233 --> 00:14:52,500
结果就是供给远大于需求

439
00:14:52,500 --> 00:14:54,233
长端利率居高不下

440
00:14:54,233 --> 00:14:56,933
这里有一个非常有说服力的市场信号

441
00:14:56,966 --> 00:14:59,733
1月底美联储宣布暂停加息之后

442
00:14:59,733 --> 00:15:02,333
10年期国债收益率不仅没有下降

443
00:15:02,333 --> 00:15:04,833
反而维持在4.28%附近

444
00:15:04,833 --> 00:15:06,333
接近五个月高位

445
00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:07,433
这说明什么

446
00:15:07,433 --> 00:15:10,100
债券市场正在用真金白银告诉你

447
00:15:10,100 --> 00:15:13,200
他在重新定价一个更高的中性利率

448
00:15:13,300 --> 00:15:14,066
市场认为

449
00:15:14,066 --> 00:15:16,833
即便美联储未来降息利率的终点

450
00:15:16,833 --> 00:15:18,800
也会比之前预想的高得多

451
00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:19,733
对股市来说

452
00:15:19,733 --> 00:15:20,700
这意味着什么

453
00:15:20,700 --> 00:15:21,866
分母端的压力

454
00:15:21,866 --> 00:15:24,433
也就是折现率将长期存在

455
00:15:24,433 --> 00:15:26,700
任何关于估值继续扩张的希望

456
00:15:26,700 --> 00:15:28,233
都会被无情扼杀

457
00:15:28,233 --> 00:15:30,100
你不要指望流动性来救你

458
00:15:30,100 --> 00:15:31,466
在可预见的未来

459
00:15:31,466 --> 00:15:32,933
水只会越来越紧

460
00:15:32,933 --> 00:15:34,233
不会越来越松

461
00:15:34,233 --> 00:15:35,700
三层过滤做完了

462
00:15:35,700 --> 00:15:36,700
病因没治好

463
00:15:36,700 --> 00:15:38,533
体质再变差也没有药

464
00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:41,500
那最后我们听听市场自己怎么说

465
00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:44,500
问题七市场自己在发出什么信号

466
00:15:44,500 --> 00:15:46,633
价格行为告诉了我们什么

467
00:15:46,666 --> 00:15:48,866
无论你的基本面分析多么完美

468
00:15:48,866 --> 00:15:51,300
最终你必须尊重价格行为

469
00:15:51,466 --> 00:15:54,100
价格是所有信息的最终投票

470
00:15:54,133 --> 00:15:55,033
标普500

471
00:15:55,033 --> 00:15:58,033
未能有效站稳7,000点这个心理大关

472
00:15:58,200 --> 00:15:59,533
在技术分析中

473
00:15:59,533 --> 00:16:02,233
这是一个教科书式的假突破形态

474
00:16:02,266 --> 00:16:03,500
价格冲上去了

475
00:16:03,500 --> 00:16:04,533
但没有站住

476
00:16:04,533 --> 00:16:05,700
又掉了回来

477
00:16:05,833 --> 00:16:08,066
这通常预示着买方力量的耗尽

478
00:16:08,066 --> 00:16:09,733
和趋势的可能逆转

479
00:16:09,933 --> 00:16:12,900
现在的第一道防线在6,800点附近

480
00:16:12,900 --> 00:16:15,033
昨天收盘6,798

481
00:16:15,033 --> 00:16:17,300
已经在这个位置摇摇欲坠了

482
00:16:17,300 --> 00:16:18,533
如果有效跌破

483
00:16:18,533 --> 00:16:21,633
下方的关键支撑在6,730点附近

484
00:16:21,633 --> 00:16:23,100
那是近期的低点

485
00:16:23,233 --> 00:16:25,033
一旦6,730失守

486
00:16:25,033 --> 00:16:27,833
将触发量化交易策略的自动止损盘

487
00:16:27,833 --> 00:16:29,333
这些算法不讲道理

488
00:16:29,333 --> 00:16:30,400
不看基本面

489
00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:31,733
触及预值就卖

490
00:16:31,733 --> 00:16:34,300
这种机器驱动的抛售会加速下跌

491
00:16:34,300 --> 00:16:36,700
目标可能直指6,400点

492
00:16:36,900 --> 00:16:38,266
再看动能指标

493
00:16:38,266 --> 00:16:41,266
日线图上的RSI已经出现了顶背离

494
00:16:41,266 --> 00:16:43,300
也就是价格之前创了新高

495
00:16:43,300 --> 00:16:45,666
但RSI没有同步创新高

496
00:16:45,666 --> 00:16:46,800
这在技术分析中

497
00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:48,733
是一个经典的卖出信号

498
00:16:48,733 --> 00:16:51,000
表明上涨动能已经枯竭

499
00:16:51,100 --> 00:16:53,800
然后是 CNN 的恐惧与贪婪指数

500
00:16:53,866 --> 00:16:55,066
根据最新数据

501
00:16:55,066 --> 00:16:57,633
这个指数已经从几周前的贪婪区间

502
00:16:57,633 --> 00:16:59,900
迅速滑落到35.77

503
00:16:59,900 --> 00:17:01,533
进入了恐惧区间

504
00:17:01,666 --> 00:17:04,666
很多逆向投资者一看到恐惧就兴奋了

505
00:17:04,666 --> 00:17:05,900
觉得可以抄底了

506
00:17:05,900 --> 00:17:08,266
但这里有一个关键的认知误区

507
00:17:08,266 --> 00:17:10,400
在真正的市场修正周期中

508
00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:12,866
底部不是在恐惧出现时形成的

509
00:17:12,866 --> 00:17:14,466
而是在极度恐惧

510
00:17:14,466 --> 00:17:16,300
通常指数跌到20以下

511
00:17:16,300 --> 00:17:18,533
甚至个位数的时候才会形成

512
00:17:18,700 --> 00:17:20,733
目前的35分说明什么

513
00:17:20,733 --> 00:17:22,600
市场还处在否认阶段

514
00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:24,200
连绝望都还没到

515
00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:26,033
离投降更是遥远

516
00:17:26,033 --> 00:17:26,900
更不要忘了

517
00:17:26,900 --> 00:17:29,533
今天盘后亚马逊暴跌10%

518
00:17:29,533 --> 00:17:30,433
这个冲击波

519
00:17:30,433 --> 00:17:32,666
还没有反映在今天的收盘价里

520
00:17:32,700 --> 00:17:33,666
明天开盘

521
00:17:33,666 --> 00:17:36,500
市场大概率还要进一步消化这个利空

522
00:17:36,566 --> 00:17:39,100
而比特币已经跌破6100美元

523
00:17:39,100 --> 00:17:40,900
创下15个月新低

524
00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:43,233
风险资产正在全面退潮

525
00:17:43,433 --> 00:17:45,633
好了 7个问题全部过完了

526
00:17:45,633 --> 00:17:46,933
我们来总结一下

527
00:17:47,033 --> 00:17:48,633
第一层病因诊断

528
00:17:48,633 --> 00:17:50,800
AI资本支出的投资回报危机

529
00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:52,700
是这轮下跌的核心病因

530
00:17:52,700 --> 00:17:55,866
而地缘政治风险完全没有被市场定价

531
00:17:55,900 --> 00:17:57,300
病因不仅没治好

532
00:17:57,300 --> 00:17:58,700
甚至还在恶化

533
00:17:58,700 --> 00:18:01,266
亚马逊2,000亿美元的资本支出炸弹

534
00:18:01,266 --> 00:18:02,400
刚刚引爆

535
00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:04,033
第二层体脂检查

536
00:18:04,033 --> 00:18:04,800
劳动力市场

537
00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:06,900
正在以肉眼可见的速度降温

538
00:18:06,900 --> 00:18:10,266
职位空缺暴跌至2020年9月以来最低

539
00:18:10,333 --> 00:18:12,666
而市场的估值依然在天花板上

540
00:18:12,666 --> 00:18:14,733
股权风险溢价几乎为零

541
00:18:14,833 --> 00:18:16,666
经济的体制不是在变好

542
00:18:16,666 --> 00:18:17,733
是在变差

543
00:18:17,733 --> 00:18:19,333
第三层有没有药

544
00:18:19,333 --> 00:18:21,066
美联储明确表态鹰派

545
00:18:21,066 --> 00:18:23,300
暂停新任主席人选偏鹰

546
00:18:23,333 --> 00:18:24,633
QT继续抽水

547
00:18:24,633 --> 00:18:26,633
国债供应洪水般涌来

548
00:18:26,666 --> 00:18:28,400
流动性不仅不会放松

549
00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:30,066
反而在进一步收紧

550
00:18:30,066 --> 00:18:33,900
市场信号确认技术面假突破动能衰竭

551
00:18:33,900 --> 00:18:36,300
恐惧指数还远未到极致

552
00:18:36,333 --> 00:18:38,633
价格行为在尖叫危险

553
00:18:38,700 --> 00:18:40,933
这不是一次逢低买入的机会

554
00:18:40,933 --> 00:18:43,533
这是一场结构性风险释放的开端

555
00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:45,833
市场正在从过去两年的流动性

556
00:18:45,833 --> 00:18:47,200
与叙事驱动模式

557
00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:50,333
痛苦地切换到盈利与基本面驱动模式

558
00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:51,533
在这个切换期

559
00:18:51,533 --> 00:18:53,500
资产价格必须向下修正

560
00:18:53,500 --> 00:18:55,200
以反映更高的资金成本

561
00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:57,033
和AI回报的滞后性

562
00:18:57,133 --> 00:18:57,633
所以

563
00:18:57,633 --> 00:19:00,466
我给同样在做美股的朋友们几点建议

564
00:19:00,500 --> 00:19:02,066
第一持有现金

565
00:19:02,066 --> 00:19:05,400
既然现金能提供4%以上的无风险收益

566
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:07,900
那就让他安安静静的待在场边

567
00:19:07,933 --> 00:19:10,033
现金不仅是避险资产

568
00:19:10,033 --> 00:19:11,833
更是未来的看涨期权

569
00:19:11,866 --> 00:19:13,600
当真正的机会出现时

570
00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:14,700
你手里有弹药

571
00:19:14,700 --> 00:19:16,833
这本身就是最大的优势

572
00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:18,933
第二设定你的狙击点

573
00:19:18,933 --> 00:19:20,200
不要盲目买入

574
00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:20,933
耐心等待

575
00:19:20,933 --> 00:19:23,933
标普500测试6730点的关键支撑

576
00:19:23,933 --> 00:19:27,133
或者等待恐惧与贪婪指数跌破20

577
00:19:27,133 --> 00:19:28,066
真正的底部

578
00:19:28,066 --> 00:19:30,300
会在大多数人已经彻底绝望

579
00:19:30,300 --> 00:19:32,400
不再谈论股票的时候出现

580
00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:35,333
第三如果你一定要配置精选个股

581
00:19:35,433 --> 00:19:38,233
利用这段时间研究那些现金流强劲

582
00:19:38,233 --> 00:19:40,933
没有卷入AI资本支出军备竞赛

583
00:19:40,933 --> 00:19:43,866
在这一轮错杀中开始显现价值的公司

584
00:19:43,866 --> 00:19:45,466
分化已经开始了

585
00:19:45,466 --> 00:19:47,733
苹果靠iPhone 17的创记录销量

586
00:19:47,733 --> 00:19:49,733
证明了端侧AI变现的逻辑

587
00:19:49,733 --> 00:19:51,033
而微软和谷歌

588
00:19:51,033 --> 00:19:53,300
正在被资本支出黑洞吞噬

589
00:19:53,300 --> 00:19:55,133
这不再是买一篮子大盘股

590
00:19:55,133 --> 00:19:56,500
就能躺赢的时代

591
00:19:56,500 --> 00:19:58,633
这是一个残酷的选股者市场

592
00:19:58,833 --> 00:20:00,633
华尔街有一句古老的谚语

593
00:20:00,633 --> 00:20:02,400
我觉得此刻特别适用

594
00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:04,733
问题不在于你会不会错过底部

595
00:20:04,733 --> 00:20:05,400
而在于

596
00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:08,133
你能不能在到达底部之前活下来

597
00:20:08,233 --> 00:20:09,466
2026年的春天

598
00:20:09,466 --> 00:20:10,666
属于有耐心的人

599
00:20:10,666 --> 00:20:11,666
我是王利杰

600
00:20:11,666 --> 00:20:12,733
我们下期见