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Anthropic的创始人手册

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写给不该创业的人

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几个月前

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这家全球最顶尖的AI公司

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发了一份36页的文件

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它不叫产品说明书

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也不叫技术白皮书

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它叫创始人手册

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我花了一个下午

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从头到尾读完了

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读完之后有一个很强烈的感觉

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这份手册表面上是写给创业者的

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但它真正想说的话

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是说给那些正准备创业的人听的

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而且不是在鼓励他们

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是在警告他们

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哈喽

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大家好

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我是王利杰

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今天我想跟你聊一件让我很不安的事情

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我做了十几年的天使投资

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这些年见过的创业者

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少说也有几千个

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以前有人来找我聊项目

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我问的第一个问题通常是

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你的技术团队到位了吗

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你能把东西做出来吗

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这个问题在过去十年里

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几乎是一个生死判断

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你有没有能力把脑子里的东西做出来

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决定了你能不能跨过创业的第一道门槛

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现在

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这个问题已经不用问了

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你去看看身边就知道了

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一个完全不懂技术的人

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打开AI工具

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用自然语言描述一下自己想要什么

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三天就能搭出一个

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像模像样的产品原型

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搁在五年前

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这得花三个月

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还得找三个工程师

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这不是夸张

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我最近看到越来越多这样的案例

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有人用AI一个周末做了一个翻译插件

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上线就有几百个下载

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有人用AI两天搭了一个客服机器人

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直接拿去跟客户签了合同

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Anthropic这份手册里

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也专门有一章讲这件事

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它说

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AI已经把创业的整个生命周期压缩了

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以前从想法到产品上线

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少说要半年

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现在这个周期可能缩短到几周

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甚至几天

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而且不只是快

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连创始人的角色都变了

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以前你得是一个动手的人

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现在你更像一个导演

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你负责想清楚要拍什么

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AI负责执行

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这听起来是一件特别美好的事

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创业的门槛消失了

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技术不再是壁垒了

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人人都有机会了

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对不对

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但这份手册里有一个数据

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让我整个人凉了半截

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过去十年

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创业公司失败的原因里面

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排第一的

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不是没钱

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不是技术不行

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也不是团队散了

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排第一的原因是

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他们造了一个没有人想要的东西

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百分之四十二

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接近一半

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你仔细想想这句话

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不是造不出来

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是造出来了

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但没有人要

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这个问题在AI出现之前

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就已经是创业者的头号杀手了

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AI出现之后

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这个问题不但没有被解决

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反而被放大了

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这就是让我不安的地方

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手册里很诚实地列出了三个陷阱

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我一个一个跟你说

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第一个陷阱

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AI是一个特别听话的助手

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你可能有过这种体验

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你跟AI说

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我想做一个

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帮老年人预约挂号的手机应用

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AI不会说

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等等

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你确定老年人需要这个吗

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你问过他们吗

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你去过医院的挂号窗口蹲一上午

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看看老人家到底卡在哪一步吗

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它不会问你这些

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它会说

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好主意

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我来帮你分析目标用户画像

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帮你设计功能框架

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帮你写代码

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三天之内给你一个能跑的原型

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它的工作就是帮你实现你的想法

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而不是质疑你的想法

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以前你有一个创业想法

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你得出去跟人聊

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你得找投资人喝咖啡

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找朋友吃饭

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找你打算服务的那群人坐下来谈

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这个过程很痛苦

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因为总有人泼你冷水

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总有人说

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我不会用这个

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我觉得不行

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你妈可能还会说

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好好上班不好吗

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但你知道吗

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这些冷水是有价值的

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它帮你在还没投入太多之前

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就发现方向可能是错的

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现在呢

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你不用出去挨骂了

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你坐在家里跟AI聊就行了

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你说一个方向

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它帮你找十条理由

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证明这个方向是对的

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你要市场数据

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它给你数据

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你要成功案例

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它给你案例

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你要竞品分析

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它给你一份漂亮的报告

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聊完之后你信心满满

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觉得自己做了充分的调研

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但你做的不是调研

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你做的是一场精心编排的自我说服

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你想想看

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你越聊越兴奋的时候

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有没有停下来问过自己一句话

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我是在找答案

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还是在找人同意我

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手册里管这个现象

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叫确认偏误的放大器

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名字不重要

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你记住那个感觉就行

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就是你坐在电脑前

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越聊越觉得自己是对的那个感觉

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那个感觉本身就是危险信号

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你可能也有过类似的时刻

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你对一个方向特别感兴趣

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跟AI来来回回聊了好几轮

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越聊越觉得这事靠谱

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但如果你这时候

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去找一个在这个行业

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干了二十年的老手吃顿饭呢

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随口一聊

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他可能筷子都没放下就告诉你

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这东西十年前有人做过

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烧了几千万

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没活下来

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这种判断力

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AI给不了你

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不是它故意隐瞒

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是它没有行业直觉这个东西

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它有的是数据 是逻辑 是语言

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但它没有一个人

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在某个行业里泡了二十年之后

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长出来的那种第六感

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第二个陷阱更可怕

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造错了东西

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还造得特别快

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我经常跟年轻创业者说一句话

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创业最危险的时候

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不是你做不出来的时候

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而是你做出来了但方向不对的时候

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以前这个问题没那么严重

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你花三个月做出一个粗糙的半成品

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拿去给用户看

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用户说不好用

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你改

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改了三次还不行

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你放弃

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整个过程花了半年

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损失了半年的时间和一些钱

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心疼

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但你还活着

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现在呢

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AI帮你三天就做出来了

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你一看

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哎

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还行

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继续

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三天又加了一个功能

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再三天又加了一个

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一个月下来

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你已经造了一个功能齐全

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界面漂亮

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甚至有付费入口的产品

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但没有人用

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这时候才是最难的时候

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因为你已经深陷其中了

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你投入了感情

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投入了时间

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你在朋友圈发过产品截图

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你跟家人说过你在做一件大事

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你甚至可能已经注册了公司

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你不愿意承认方向可能是错的

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因为承认代价太大了

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不是经济上的代价

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是心理上的

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以前你要花很长时间

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才能给自己挖一个深坑

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现在AI帮你挖

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三天就到底了

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速度变快了

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掉头的代价反而更大了

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还有一个事很多人没意识到

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AI帮你写的代码

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表面上能跑

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但底下藏着大量的隐患

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为什么

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因为AI写代码追求的是能用

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不是好用

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它不会替你想

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以后怎么改 怎么扩展 怎么维护

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你三天造出来的东西

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可能第四天就开始从里面烂了

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但你看不到

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你看到的是一个能跑的产品

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你看不到的是地基里的裂缝

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第三个陷阱

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翻译成大白话就是

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你看到的增长全是假的

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什么意思呢

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你做了一个AI工具

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投了一点广告

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来了一批用户

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你看后台数据

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每天都有人登录

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页面浏览量不低

249
00:07:47,686 --> 00:07:49,412
留存率好像也还行

250
00:07:49,566 --> 00:07:50,232
你觉得不错

251
00:07:50,607 --> 00:07:52,051
产品找到市场了

252
00:07:52,207 --> 00:07:53,511
但你没注意到一件事

253
00:07:53,847 --> 00:07:56,285
这些用户不是来用你的产品的

254
00:07:56,287 --> 00:07:58,486
他们是来看看AI能做什么的

255
00:07:58,486 --> 00:07:59,912
他们的动机是好奇

256
00:08:00,327 --> 00:08:01,292
不是需求

257
00:08:01,407 --> 00:08:02,431
好奇心用完了

258
00:08:02,686 --> 00:08:04,456
他们就再也不会回来

259
00:08:05,011 --> 00:08:06,677
现在全世界有多少人

260
00:08:06,932 --> 00:08:08,196
对AI感到好奇

261
00:08:08,891 --> 00:08:09,817
几十亿

262
00:08:10,211 --> 00:08:12,497
随便一个带AI字样的产品

263
00:08:12,612 --> 00:08:15,456
上线初期都能拿到一波流量

264
00:08:15,812 --> 00:08:16,970
但这波流量

265
00:08:16,971 --> 00:08:19,817
跟你的产品好不好没有任何关系

266
00:08:20,052 --> 00:08:22,656
它只跟AI这个词有关

267
00:08:22,971 --> 00:08:25,096
这种虚假的早期数据

268
00:08:25,172 --> 00:08:27,136
比没有数据更危险

269
00:08:27,531 --> 00:08:28,516
因为没有数据

270
00:08:28,852 --> 00:08:30,857
你知道自己还没开始

271
00:08:31,131 --> 00:08:32,117
有了假数据

272
00:08:32,492 --> 00:08:34,656
你以为自己已经上路了

273
00:08:35,011 --> 00:08:36,276
方向盘都握紧了

274
00:08:36,612 --> 00:08:38,296
油门也踩到底了

275
00:08:38,572 --> 00:08:39,676
但前面那条路

276
00:08:40,011 --> 00:08:41,016
根本不通

277
00:08:41,944 --> 00:08:42,728
说了这么多问题

278
00:08:43,184 --> 00:08:43,929
你可能会问

279
00:08:44,343 --> 00:08:46,248
那到底什么才是真正的瓶颈

280
00:08:46,743 --> 00:08:47,789
我想了很久

281
00:08:48,064 --> 00:08:50,246
后来我想起一个很老的故事

282
00:08:50,682 --> 00:08:52,407
工业革命刚开始的时候

283
00:08:52,522 --> 00:08:54,927
蒸汽机让生产变得特别容易

284
00:08:55,282 --> 00:08:57,527
一个工匠一天做三把椅子

285
00:08:57,601 --> 00:08:59,927
一台机器一天能做三百把

286
00:09:00,121 --> 00:09:02,366
于是所有人都开始造椅子

287
00:09:02,704 --> 00:09:03,186
结果呢

288
00:09:03,721 --> 00:09:05,366
椅子多到卖不出去了

289
00:09:05,601 --> 00:09:06,547
不是椅子不好

290
00:09:06,882 --> 00:09:08,434
是太多了

291
00:09:08,789 --> 00:09:09,987
后来活下来的

292
00:09:09,988 --> 00:09:12,113
不是造得最快的那些工厂

293
00:09:12,189 --> 00:09:14,514
而是那些想明白了一件事的人

294
00:09:14,748 --> 00:09:15,814
他们想明白的是

295
00:09:16,149 --> 00:09:17,833
消费者不缺椅子

296
00:09:17,948 --> 00:09:19,068
消费者缺的

297
00:09:19,069 --> 00:09:21,434
是一把他愿意坐十年的椅子

298
00:09:21,708 --> 00:09:22,373
从能造

299
00:09:22,748 --> 00:09:23,674
到造对

300
00:09:23,948 --> 00:09:25,573
中间隔着的不是技术

301
00:09:25,828 --> 00:09:26,873
是判断力

302
00:09:27,108 --> 00:09:28,507
今天的AI时代

303
00:09:28,508 --> 00:09:30,428
和两百年前的那个故事

304
00:09:30,429 --> 00:09:32,154
逻辑上一模一样

305
00:09:32,468 --> 00:09:35,394
瓶颈从手上移到了眼睛上

306
00:09:35,748 --> 00:09:36,694
从你能不能做

307
00:09:37,189 --> 00:09:39,178
变成了你该不该做

308
00:09:39,453 --> 00:09:41,598
那这种判断力到底是什么

309
00:09:42,134 --> 00:09:44,212
我觉得它不是一种知识

310
00:09:44,213 --> 00:09:45,619
也不是一种技能

311
00:09:45,973 --> 00:09:47,858
它更像是一种感知力

312
00:09:48,294 --> 00:09:51,218
是你对真实世界里真实的人的理解

313
00:09:51,614 --> 00:09:53,298
是你知道一个母亲

314
00:09:53,374 --> 00:09:56,119
早上六点半在厨房里最需要什么

315
00:09:56,733 --> 00:09:59,132
是你知道一个刚毕业的年轻人

316
00:09:59,134 --> 00:10:00,893
打开手机的前三秒

317
00:10:00,894 --> 00:10:01,678
在找什么

318
00:10:02,254 --> 00:10:04,933
是你知道一个六十岁的退休工人

319
00:10:04,933 --> 00:10:06,972
走进医院大厅的那一刻

320
00:10:06,973 --> 00:10:08,938
他心里最怕的是什么

321
00:10:09,294 --> 00:10:11,619
这些东西你在网上查不到

322
00:10:11,693 --> 00:10:13,259
AI也给不了你

323
00:10:13,973 --> 00:10:15,039
它在菜市场里

324
00:10:15,294 --> 00:10:16,338
在地铁上

325
00:10:16,453 --> 00:10:18,132
在你跟一个陌生人

326
00:10:18,134 --> 00:10:19,938
随口聊了五分钟之后

327
00:10:20,134 --> 00:10:22,659
他不经意说出的那半句话里

328
00:10:23,173 --> 00:10:25,499
它在你认真观察生活的时候

329
00:10:25,654 --> 00:10:27,969
一点一点长出来的

330
00:10:28,285 --> 00:10:29,569
我投资这些年

331
00:10:29,645 --> 00:10:31,609
凡是后来做成了的创业者

332
00:10:31,645 --> 00:10:32,829
他们有一个共同点

333
00:10:33,244 --> 00:10:34,564
不是最聪明的

334
00:10:34,564 --> 00:10:35,790
不是技术最强的

335
00:10:36,005 --> 00:10:37,650
也不是资源最多的

336
00:10:37,885 --> 00:10:39,569
是他们真的花时间

337
00:10:39,604 --> 00:10:42,050
去理解了自己要服务的那群人

338
00:10:42,444 --> 00:10:43,430
他们蹲过店铺

339
00:10:43,724 --> 00:10:44,770
跑过工厂

340
00:10:44,885 --> 00:10:46,969
在用户家里坐过一下午

341
00:10:47,165 --> 00:10:49,843
他们知道用户嘴上说想要什么

342
00:10:49,844 --> 00:10:52,130
其实和真正需要什么之间

343
00:10:52,165 --> 00:10:53,650
差了十万八千里

344
00:10:54,324 --> 00:10:57,324
这种理解不是调研报告能给你的

345
00:10:57,324 --> 00:10:59,736
更不是AI能给你的

346
00:11:00,130 --> 00:11:02,535
手册里有一段话我印象特别深

347
00:11:02,971 --> 00:11:03,316
它说

348
00:11:03,571 --> 00:11:04,476
在AI时代

349
00:11:04,770 --> 00:11:06,295
创始人的角色变了

350
00:11:06,491 --> 00:11:08,329
以前创始人是动手的人

351
00:11:08,331 --> 00:11:10,576
你得自己写代码 自己做产品

352
00:11:10,770 --> 00:11:13,015
现在创始人更像一个指挥家

353
00:11:13,290 --> 00:11:15,610
你不用亲自演奏每一个乐器

354
00:11:15,611 --> 00:11:16,809
但你必须知道

355
00:11:16,811 --> 00:11:18,895
这首曲子应该是什么样的

356
00:11:19,130 --> 00:11:20,689
什么样的旋律是对的

357
00:11:20,691 --> 00:11:22,456
什么样的节奏是好的

358
00:11:22,691 --> 00:11:23,356
这个判断

359
00:11:23,611 --> 00:11:25,416
只能你来做

360
00:11:26,010 --> 00:11:28,656
你可以让AI帮你写每一行代码

361
00:11:28,770 --> 00:11:29,975
做每一张图

362
00:11:30,171 --> 00:11:31,375
排每一个版

363
00:11:31,931 --> 00:11:33,895
但你不能让AI替你决定

364
00:11:33,931 --> 00:11:36,656
这个产品到底应不应该存在

365
00:11:37,051 --> 00:11:40,336
这份手册最让我感慨的地方就在这儿

366
00:11:40,650 --> 00:11:44,375
它是全世界做AI做得最好的公司之一写出来的

367
00:11:44,650 --> 00:11:45,956
但它通篇在说的

368
00:11:46,250 --> 00:11:47,895
不是AI有多强大

369
00:11:48,010 --> 00:11:50,536
而是AI不能替你做的那些事

370
00:11:50,890 --> 00:11:52,375
它不能替你判断

371
00:11:52,411 --> 00:11:54,816
一个需求是真的还是假的

372
00:11:55,171 --> 00:11:57,975
它不能替你在该放弃的时候放弃

373
00:11:58,331 --> 00:11:59,850
它不能替你看见

374
00:11:59,850 --> 00:12:02,056
那些没有被说出口的需求

375
00:12:02,610 --> 00:12:03,570
能造什么

376
00:12:03,571 --> 00:12:06,135
这个问题AI已经替你回答了

377
00:12:07,211 --> 00:12:08,249
该造什么

378
00:12:08,250 --> 00:12:11,095
这个问题永远只有你自己能回答

379
00:12:12,126 --> 00:12:14,050
手册最后一章有一句话

380
00:12:14,205 --> 00:12:15,991
翻译成中文大概是这个意思

381
00:12:16,645 --> 00:12:18,924
瓶颈不再是你能造什么

382
00:12:18,925 --> 00:12:20,690
而是你选择造什么

383
00:12:20,925 --> 00:12:22,190
你第一次听可能觉得

384
00:12:22,405 --> 00:12:22,591
嗯

385
00:12:22,805 --> 00:12:23,650
有道理

386
00:12:23,726 --> 00:12:25,365
但如果你正在创业

387
00:12:25,366 --> 00:12:27,251
或者正在考虑创业

388
00:12:27,325 --> 00:12:29,832
我建议你把这句话好好想一想

389
00:12:30,026 --> 00:12:32,391
因为它说的其实不只是创业

390
00:12:32,707 --> 00:12:34,811
我们每个人的人生不也是一样吗

391
00:12:35,306 --> 00:12:36,452
你可以做很多事

392
00:12:36,747 --> 00:12:37,992
但时间有限

393
00:12:38,026 --> 00:12:38,992
精力有限

394
00:12:39,227 --> 00:12:40,671
你有没有认真想过

395
00:12:40,707 --> 00:12:42,751
在所有你能做的事情里面

396
00:12:42,786 --> 00:12:44,612
哪些是你真正应该做的

397
00:12:45,026 --> 00:12:46,226
我见过太多人

398
00:12:46,227 --> 00:12:48,425
把时间花在了能做的事情上

399
00:12:48,426 --> 00:12:50,072
而不是该做的事情上

400
00:12:50,186 --> 00:12:50,931
忙了一辈子

401
00:12:51,067 --> 00:12:52,031
回头一看

402
00:12:52,067 --> 00:12:53,811
大部分忙碌都是在填坑

403
00:12:54,146 --> 00:12:55,852
自己挖的坑

404
00:12:56,206 --> 00:12:57,471
有时候我觉得

405
00:12:57,806 --> 00:12:58,811
学会说不

406
00:12:58,926 --> 00:13:01,532
应该是这个时代最被低估的能力

407
00:13:01,806 --> 00:13:03,032
对一个功能说不

408
00:13:03,446 --> 00:13:05,132
对一个看起来很酷

409
00:13:05,166 --> 00:13:07,612
但其实没人需要的想法说不

410
00:13:07,727 --> 00:13:08,831
对别人都在做

411
00:13:09,166 --> 00:13:11,532
你也觉得应该跟的风口说不

412
00:13:11,806 --> 00:13:12,872
工具越强大

413
00:13:13,127 --> 00:13:15,967
用工具的人越需要清醒

414
00:13:16,281 --> 00:13:19,047
AI是这个时代最了不起的工具之一

415
00:13:19,322 --> 00:13:20,920
但工具越锋利

416
00:13:20,922 --> 00:13:23,126
你越需要知道该往哪里切

417
00:13:23,442 --> 00:13:24,687
拿着一把钝刀

418
00:13:24,721 --> 00:13:26,721
切错了地方也没什么大事

419
00:13:26,721 --> 00:13:27,807
反正切不动

420
00:13:28,042 --> 00:13:30,800
但如果你拿的是一把削铁如泥的刀

421
00:13:30,802 --> 00:13:33,759
你最好先想清楚再动手

422
00:13:34,277 --> 00:13:35,910
你觉得在AI时代

423
00:13:36,024 --> 00:13:38,152
一个人最核心的能力到底是什么

424
00:13:38,643 --> 00:13:39,779
是学会使用AI

425
00:13:40,349 --> 00:13:42,457
还是在AI什么都能做的时候

426
00:13:42,611 --> 00:13:43,707
知道什么不该做

427
00:13:44,396 --> 00:13:45,096
我是王利杰

428
00:13:45,349 --> 00:13:46,385
我们下期见