1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,636
Fable 5上线三天被叫停

2
00:00:02,983 --> 00:00:05,035
Claude开始改进Claude了

3
00:00:05,343 --> 00:00:07,062
这是人工智能历史上

4
00:00:07,062 --> 00:00:09,195
最魔幻的七十二个小时

5
00:00:09,663 --> 00:00:10,676
六月九号

6
00:00:10,743 --> 00:00:13,702
Anthropic公司放出了一个新模型

7
00:00:13,702 --> 00:00:14,875
叫Fable 5

8
00:00:15,223 --> 00:00:16,716
这是他们有史以来

9
00:00:16,742 --> 00:00:19,955
公开给普通人用的最强的一个大脑

10
00:00:20,303 --> 00:00:22,275
我自己就是付费用户

11
00:00:22,623 --> 00:00:25,876
有一个我琢磨了好几天都没理清的工作流

12
00:00:26,182 --> 00:00:29,435
我把一堆乱七八糟的想法一股脑丢给它

13
00:00:29,542 --> 00:00:32,555
它几分钟就帮我捋出了一整套方案

14
00:00:32,783 --> 00:00:34,822
连我自己都没想到的几个坑

15
00:00:34,823 --> 00:00:36,915
它都提前替我标了出来

16
00:00:37,222 --> 00:00:37,936
那种感觉

17
00:00:38,222 --> 00:00:39,996
就像你开惯了家用车

18
00:00:40,103 --> 00:00:42,795
突然被人塞进了一架战斗机的座舱

19
00:00:43,023 --> 00:00:47,036
仪表盘上全是你看不懂、却又强得吓人的按钮

20
00:00:47,383 --> 00:00:47,695
然后

21
00:00:48,143 --> 00:00:49,076
三天之后

22
00:00:49,103 --> 00:00:50,375
六月十二号的下午

23
00:00:50,703 --> 00:00:51,515
它没了

24
00:00:51,823 --> 00:00:52,456
不是宕机

25
00:00:52,783 --> 00:00:53,716
不是维护

26
00:00:54,222 --> 00:00:56,396
是美国政府下了一道命令

27
00:00:56,542 --> 00:00:58,716
Anthropic当天晚上就把它

28
00:00:58,783 --> 00:01:01,182
连同它背后那个更可怕的哥哥

29
00:01:01,182 --> 00:01:02,015
一起关掉了

30
00:01:02,383 --> 00:01:04,436
对全世界所有用户关闭

31
00:01:04,903 --> 00:01:06,495
我们这些在美国之外的人

32
00:01:06,903 --> 00:01:07,876
一夜之间

33
00:01:07,903 --> 00:01:10,156
被从这架战斗机里请了出来

34
00:01:10,382 --> 00:01:10,695
哈喽

35
00:01:10,942 --> 00:01:11,415
大家好

36
00:01:11,703 --> 00:01:12,835
我是王利杰

37
00:01:13,022 --> 00:01:14,581
今天我想跟你聊的

38
00:01:14,582 --> 00:01:16,995
不是这场叫停背后的政治八卦

39
00:01:17,222 --> 00:01:18,581
我真正想聊的

40
00:01:18,582 --> 00:01:20,936
是藏在这七十二小时里的那个东西

41
00:01:21,543 --> 00:01:23,936
一个比"奇点"这个词更准确

42
00:01:24,222 --> 00:01:26,796
也更让人脊背发凉的真相

43
00:01:26,983 --> 00:01:28,176
我们先说说"奇点"

44
00:01:28,623 --> 00:01:29,135
这些年

45
00:01:29,423 --> 00:01:30,861
只要一聊人工智能

46
00:01:30,862 --> 00:01:34,575
大家脑子里浮现的都是科幻片里那个画面：某一天

47
00:01:34,903 --> 00:01:36,462
机器突然觉醒了"

48
00:01:36,462 --> 00:01:37,382
砰"的一声

49
00:01:37,382 --> 00:01:38,135
智能爆炸

50
00:01:38,462 --> 00:01:40,436
世界从此天翻地覆

51
00:01:40,582 --> 00:01:42,221
我们都在等那个时刻

52
00:01:42,222 --> 00:01:43,995
那个一锤定音的瞬间

53
00:01:44,263 --> 00:01:45,902
但Anthropic的创始人

54
00:01:45,903 --> 00:01:47,262
达里奥·阿莫迪

55
00:01:47,263 --> 00:01:49,475
最近在一个很长的访谈里说

56
00:01:49,503 --> 00:01:50,701
你们全错了

57
00:01:50,703 --> 00:01:52,195
根本没有那个时刻

58
00:01:52,543 --> 00:01:54,876
他用了一个特别精确的比喻

59
00:01:55,063 --> 00:01:56,956
我听完之后愣了很久

60
00:01:57,302 --> 00:01:57,656
他说

61
00:01:58,143 --> 00:02:00,635
你想象自己坐在一艘飞船上

62
00:02:00,703 --> 00:02:03,355
以接近光速的速度飞离地球

63
00:02:03,703 --> 00:02:04,656
按照相对论

64
00:02:05,022 --> 00:02:06,275
时间会变慢

65
00:02:06,623 --> 00:02:07,995
你睡一觉醒来

66
00:02:08,103 --> 00:02:10,316
地球上已经过去了两天

67
00:02:10,782 --> 00:02:12,662
于是你得在这一天里

68
00:02:12,663 --> 00:02:15,036
处理地球上两天发生的事

69
00:02:15,302 --> 00:02:16,656
可飞船还在加速

70
00:02:17,103 --> 00:02:18,301
等你再睡一觉

71
00:02:18,302 --> 00:02:20,156
地球上又过去了三天

72
00:02:20,582 --> 00:02:21,096
再一觉

73
00:02:21,502 --> 00:02:22,195
四天

74
00:02:22,663 --> 00:02:23,776
你永远在加速

75
00:02:24,062 --> 00:02:25,342
你身边的世界

76
00:02:25,342 --> 00:02:27,256
就以一种越来越快的节奏

77
00:02:27,543 --> 00:02:28,556
扑面而来

78
00:02:28,943 --> 00:02:32,036
这就是达里奥说他每天的真实体感

79
00:02:32,302 --> 00:02:34,156
不是某一天突然爆炸

80
00:02:34,263 --> 00:02:39,436
而是一条平滑的、安静的、却在不断变陡的指数曲线

81
00:02:39,902 --> 00:02:42,175
他管这个叫"平滑的指数"

82
00:02:42,983 --> 00:02:46,156
这里藏着人类认知一个特别深的盲区

83
00:02:46,423 --> 00:02:47,135
我们的大脑

84
00:02:47,223 --> 00:02:49,355
是在草原上进化出来的

85
00:02:49,383 --> 00:02:51,795
它天生只会做线性的预判

86
00:02:51,862 --> 00:02:52,695
今天走一步

87
00:02:52,862 --> 00:02:53,901
明天走一步

88
00:02:53,902 --> 00:02:55,836
后天大概也是一步

89
00:02:55,943 --> 00:02:57,502
可指数不是这样

90
00:02:57,502 --> 00:02:58,975
指数是今天一步

91
00:02:59,143 --> 00:03:00,021
明天两步

92
00:03:00,022 --> 00:03:00,776
后天四步

93
00:03:01,103 --> 00:03:02,622
前面很长一段时间

94
00:03:02,622 --> 00:03:04,596
平得几乎看不出变化

95
00:03:04,663 --> 00:03:06,376
让你觉得"也不过如此嘛"

96
00:03:06,983 --> 00:03:07,376
然后

97
00:03:07,663 --> 00:03:09,822
在某个你毫无防备的拐角

98
00:03:09,823 --> 00:03:11,436
它突然竖了起来

99
00:03:11,862 --> 00:03:13,395
我们看不见指数

100
00:03:13,782 --> 00:03:14,816
这不是知识问题

101
00:03:15,302 --> 00:03:16,556
这是硬件问题

102
00:03:17,103 --> 00:03:18,301
我们这颗大脑

103
00:03:18,302 --> 00:03:20,915
根本没有为指数时代设计过

104
00:03:21,502 --> 00:03:23,795
你回想一下自己这两年的感受

105
00:03:23,983 --> 00:03:28,141
是不是经常有这种错觉：明明才几个月没仔细关注

106
00:03:28,143 --> 00:03:29,235
再回头一看

107
00:03:29,302 --> 00:03:31,376
AI已经会写代码、会看病

108
00:03:31,622 --> 00:03:34,075
会拍视频、会替你回邮件了

109
00:03:34,182 --> 00:03:35,776
你总觉得自己慢了半拍

110
00:03:36,143 --> 00:03:37,342
永远在追赶

111
00:03:37,342 --> 00:03:39,515
永远有种喘不上气的焦虑

112
00:03:39,782 --> 00:03:41,355
这不是你不够努力

113
00:03:41,543 --> 00:03:44,141
这就是坐在那艘加速飞船里的人

114
00:03:44,143 --> 00:03:45,596
必然会有的眩晕

115
00:03:45,782 --> 00:03:47,782
而Fable 5这三天的命运

116
00:03:47,782 --> 00:03:49,116
就是那条曲线

117
00:03:49,143 --> 00:03:51,756
突然在我们眼前竖起来的一瞬间

118
00:03:52,128 --> 00:03:52,862
那么

119
00:03:52,862 --> 00:03:55,695
是什么在推着这条曲线越来越陡

120
00:03:56,263 --> 00:03:58,596
这才是今天真正的主角

121
00:03:59,062 --> 00:04:03,156
达里奥给了一个让我后背发凉的答案：人工智能

122
00:04:03,223 --> 00:04:05,596
已经开始改进人工智能了

123
00:04:05,902 --> 00:04:06,256
注意

124
00:04:06,543 --> 00:04:08,222
他说的不是未来时

125
00:04:08,223 --> 00:04:09,756
是现在进行时

126
00:04:09,983 --> 00:04:10,336
他说

127
00:04:10,782 --> 00:04:11,596
一年前

128
00:04:11,663 --> 00:04:14,382
人工智能给他们公司带来的效率提升

129
00:04:14,383 --> 00:04:16,276
大概是百分之十到十五

130
00:04:16,583 --> 00:04:17,136
现在呢

131
00:04:17,822 --> 00:04:19,355
百分之二十到三十

132
00:04:19,783 --> 00:04:20,216
而且"

133
00:04:20,543 --> 00:04:21,615
可能正在翻倍"

134
00:04:22,302 --> 00:04:26,036
更关键的是他下面这句话 - 现在的人工智能

135
00:04:26,103 --> 00:04:28,382
已经能够为下一代人工智能

136
00:04:28,382 --> 00:04:30,235
提出新的架构设计了

137
00:04:30,663 --> 00:04:32,175
你听懂这句话的分量了吗

138
00:04:33,023 --> 00:04:33,456
过去

139
00:04:33,903 --> 00:04:35,396
是人在造工具

140
00:04:35,822 --> 00:04:37,196
铁匠造锤子

141
00:04:37,262 --> 00:04:39,555
锤子不会反过来改进铁匠

142
00:04:40,103 --> 00:04:40,995
可现在

143
00:04:41,142 --> 00:04:42,776
Claude在帮Anthropic

144
00:04:42,942 --> 00:04:45,276
设计下一个更聪明的Claude

145
00:04:45,742 --> 00:04:46,776
被造出来的东西

146
00:04:47,302 --> 00:04:48,555
开始回过头

147
00:04:48,742 --> 00:04:51,156
参与制造那个制造它的过程

148
00:04:51,622 --> 00:04:55,175
这就是为什么这家公司能用一种近乎疯狂的速度

149
00:04:55,343 --> 00:04:56,216
往外发产品

150
00:04:56,702 --> 00:04:57,982
因为造产品的

151
00:04:57,983 --> 00:04:59,636
已经不全是人了

152
00:05:00,103 --> 00:05:01,636
达里奥自己也承认

153
00:05:01,702 --> 00:05:03,516
他们今天能跑这么快

154
00:05:03,543 --> 00:05:04,822
一个关键原因

155
00:05:04,822 --> 00:05:06,742
就是他们已经在用Claude

156
00:05:06,742 --> 00:05:09,836
来帮忙训练和打磨下一代的Claude

157
00:05:10,423 --> 00:05:14,701
你把这个画面在脑子里放慢一点看：一个智能

158
00:05:14,702 --> 00:05:18,136
正在亲手打磨一个比它自己更聪明的智能

159
00:05:18,702 --> 00:05:19,935
而那个更聪明的

160
00:05:20,142 --> 00:05:21,422
又会回过头去

161
00:05:21,423 --> 00:05:22,636
打磨下一个

162
00:05:23,062 --> 00:05:24,396
一环扣一环

163
00:05:24,502 --> 00:05:27,276
每一环都比上一环转得更快

164
00:05:28,142 --> 00:05:29,696
这个过程一旦转起来

165
00:05:29,983 --> 00:05:30,915
就不会停

166
00:05:31,142 --> 00:05:32,915
这个回路一旦闭合

167
00:05:32,942 --> 00:05:35,735
它就不再需要等待某个"奇点时刻"

168
00:05:36,262 --> 00:05:36,975
它本身

169
00:05:37,302 --> 00:05:39,875
就是一台正在加速的永动机

170
00:05:40,189 --> 00:05:40,862
这

171
00:05:40,862 --> 00:05:45,156
才是那条指数曲线越来越陡的真正引擎

172
00:05:45,622 --> 00:05:46,016
现在

173
00:05:46,223 --> 00:05:47,915
我们可以回到Fable 5

174
00:05:47,983 --> 00:05:50,096
还有它背后那个被藏起来的哥哥

175
00:05:50,382 --> 00:05:51,396
Mythos了

176
00:05:51,822 --> 00:05:53,156
在Fable 5之前

177
00:05:53,343 --> 00:05:55,516
Anthropic内部憋着一个模型

178
00:05:55,543 --> 00:05:56,755
代号Mythos

179
00:05:57,182 --> 00:05:58,536
这个东西有多吓人

180
00:05:59,023 --> 00:06:00,636
他们让它去看代码

181
00:06:00,742 --> 00:06:03,956
它能从一个号称全世界最安全的操作系统里

182
00:06:03,983 --> 00:06:07,716
揪出一个藏了整整二十七年、没人发现的漏洞

183
00:06:07,822 --> 00:06:09,915
他们把它指向火狐浏览器

184
00:06:10,023 --> 00:06:13,076
它一口气找出两百七十一个全新的漏洞

185
00:06:13,223 --> 00:06:15,956
全都是过去最强的模型找不到的

186
00:06:15,983 --> 00:06:16,776
更要命的是

187
00:06:17,062 --> 00:06:18,622
它不只能"找到"漏洞

188
00:06:18,622 --> 00:06:21,716
它还能把漏洞直接变成可以攻击的武器

189
00:06:21,942 --> 00:06:24,875
Anthropic把它给了几家合作公司试用

190
00:06:24,903 --> 00:06:26,062
对方吓坏了

191
00:06:26,062 --> 00:06:28,755
反过来求他们：这是个超级武器

192
00:06:28,822 --> 00:06:30,622
用它应该像用枪一样

193
00:06:30,622 --> 00:06:32,355
得先办张持枪证

194
00:06:33,223 --> 00:06:34,675
求你们别放出来

195
00:06:35,182 --> 00:06:37,555
所以Anthropic没有公开放它

196
00:06:37,822 --> 00:06:39,541
他们只是限量地

197
00:06:39,543 --> 00:06:43,355
把它交给一小撮专门做防御的安全团队

198
00:06:43,463 --> 00:06:45,995
让这些人抢在坏人之前

199
00:06:46,142 --> 00:06:48,581
先把全世界软件里的窟窿

200
00:06:48,583 --> 00:06:49,836
一个一个补上

201
00:06:50,302 --> 00:06:53,175
达里奥的逻辑是这样的：漏洞是有限的

202
00:06:53,463 --> 00:06:55,502
你先把好人武装起来

203
00:06:55,502 --> 00:06:57,295
让他们把洞都堵死

204
00:06:57,783 --> 00:07:00,836
等坏人将来也拿到同样的武器时

205
00:07:00,862 --> 00:07:03,276
会发现已经无墙可攻了

206
00:07:03,663 --> 00:07:04,555
这是一家

207
00:07:04,583 --> 00:07:07,036
会把自己造出来的最强武器

208
00:07:07,142 --> 00:07:09,396
主动锁进保险柜的公司

209
00:07:09,822 --> 00:07:10,576
但你别忘了

210
00:07:10,862 --> 00:07:12,675
Mythos还有另一个身份

211
00:07:12,942 --> 00:07:13,536
达里奥说

212
00:07:13,903 --> 00:07:15,115
正是这个模型

213
00:07:15,182 --> 00:07:18,196
极大地加速了Anthropic自己内部的研究

214
00:07:18,463 --> 00:07:18,815
你看

215
00:07:19,142 --> 00:07:21,675
它就是那台永动机的核心齿轮

216
00:07:21,822 --> 00:07:23,776
一个强到不敢公开的模型

217
00:07:24,103 --> 00:07:25,141
回过头去

218
00:07:25,142 --> 00:07:26,875
造出更强的下一代

219
00:07:27,103 --> 00:07:27,536
递归

220
00:07:27,862 --> 00:07:29,235
就发生在这里

221
00:07:29,302 --> 00:07:30,341
而Fable 5

222
00:07:30,343 --> 00:07:32,382
就是这身Mythos级别的能力

223
00:07:32,382 --> 00:07:33,855
第一次穿上"安全外衣"

224
00:07:34,103 --> 00:07:35,636
走到普通人面前

225
00:07:35,903 --> 00:07:37,755
它给自己加了一层护栏

226
00:07:37,903 --> 00:07:41,076
碰到网络攻击、生物化学这种高危问题

227
00:07:41,223 --> 00:07:44,555
就自动退回到一个更老实的旧模型去回答

228
00:07:44,783 --> 00:07:45,415
可结果呢

229
00:07:46,182 --> 00:07:47,016
上线三天

230
00:07:47,302 --> 00:07:48,716
美国政府就来了

231
00:07:49,103 --> 00:07:50,355
政府担心的是

232
00:07:50,423 --> 00:07:52,375
这层护栏有可能被人"越狱"

233
00:07:52,742 --> 00:07:54,995
也就是用某种话术绕过去

234
00:07:55,062 --> 00:07:57,536
把里面那个Mythos级别的网络攻击能力

235
00:07:57,583 --> 00:07:58,795
给解锁出来

236
00:07:58,942 --> 00:08:03,341
于是政府下了一道出口管制的指令：凡是外国人

237
00:08:03,343 --> 00:08:04,935
不管你在不在美国境内

238
00:08:05,182 --> 00:08:06,196
都不许用

239
00:08:06,583 --> 00:08:07,915
而Anthropic说

240
00:08:07,942 --> 00:08:11,795
我没法在每一秒钟里实时分辨谁是哪国人

241
00:08:12,108 --> 00:08:12,576
怎么办

242
00:08:13,262 --> 00:08:14,136
只能一刀切

243
00:08:14,543 --> 00:08:15,942
对全球所有人

244
00:08:15,942 --> 00:08:16,696
包括我们

245
00:08:16,983 --> 00:08:18,076
全部关闭

246
00:08:18,622 --> 00:08:20,475
你品品这件事的荒诞

247
00:08:20,942 --> 00:08:23,255
一家最强调安全、最克制

248
00:08:23,663 --> 00:08:26,915
连自己最强的武器都主动锁起来的公司

249
00:08:27,103 --> 00:08:29,182
最后却被自己的政府

250
00:08:29,182 --> 00:08:30,836
亲手拔掉了电源

251
00:08:31,302 --> 00:08:32,942
而达里奥在那个访谈里

252
00:08:32,942 --> 00:08:34,275
恰恰说过一句话

253
00:08:34,423 --> 00:08:35,716
简直像预言

254
00:08:35,982 --> 00:08:37,942
他说：这项技术

255
00:08:37,942 --> 00:08:39,836
我既害怕公司拥有它

256
00:08:39,903 --> 00:08:41,556
也害怕政府拥有它

257
00:08:41,942 --> 00:08:42,936
话音还没落地

258
00:08:43,222 --> 00:08:44,142
政府的手

259
00:08:44,143 --> 00:08:45,316
就伸进来了

260
00:08:45,663 --> 00:08:47,635
这就是那条平滑指数

261
00:08:47,663 --> 00:08:49,275
露出獠牙的方式

262
00:08:49,543 --> 00:08:52,216
它不会敲锣打鼓地告诉你"奇点到了"

263
00:08:52,582 --> 00:08:55,035
它只是让一个强到失控的能力

264
00:08:55,068 --> 00:08:55,869
上线

265
00:08:55,903 --> 00:08:56,495
再消失

266
00:08:56,903 --> 00:08:58,316
前后不过三天

267
00:08:58,462 --> 00:09:00,022
快到你还没反应过来

268
00:09:00,023 --> 00:09:01,995
它就已经改写了一遍规则

269
00:09:02,383 --> 00:09:03,255
那我们该怎么办

270
00:09:03,783 --> 00:09:05,981
是该跟着那批" AI要觉醒了

271
00:09:05,982 --> 00:09:08,355
赶紧叫停一切"的人一起恐慌

272
00:09:08,462 --> 00:09:11,056
还是该跟着另一批"这都是资本炒作

273
00:09:11,462 --> 00:09:13,336
AI还差得远"的人一起嘲笑

274
00:09:14,143 --> 00:09:14,775
达里奥说

275
00:09:15,102 --> 00:09:16,142
这两种反应

276
00:09:16,143 --> 00:09:17,515
都是不成熟的

277
00:09:17,863 --> 00:09:18,855
今天喊"不用怕"

278
00:09:19,222 --> 00:09:20,296
明天喊"完蛋了"

279
00:09:20,582 --> 00:09:21,942
这种来回横跳

280
00:09:21,942 --> 00:09:23,902
恰恰证明一个人被吓到了

281
00:09:23,903 --> 00:09:25,196
证明他不严肃

282
00:09:25,503 --> 00:09:26,735
真正成熟的态度

283
00:09:26,942 --> 00:09:27,596
他说

284
00:09:27,702 --> 00:09:30,062
是像一个外科医生面对手术

285
00:09:30,062 --> 00:09:32,056
或者一个军官面对战场那样

286
00:09:32,423 --> 00:09:34,355
你不能装作风险不存在

287
00:09:34,423 --> 00:09:36,475
但你也绝不能惊慌失措

288
00:09:36,623 --> 00:09:37,375
你要做的

289
00:09:37,623 --> 00:09:38,902
是让你的应对

290
00:09:38,903 --> 00:09:40,662
随着这项技术的能力

291
00:09:40,663 --> 00:09:43,316
平滑地、一档一档地往上加

292
00:09:43,623 --> 00:09:46,629
他把这叫做理解这一切的"罗塞塔石碑"

293
00:09:46,639 --> 00:09:48,995
那条平滑的指数

294
00:09:49,263 --> 00:09:49,975
看懂了它

295
00:09:50,302 --> 00:09:52,261
你就既不会盲目乐观

296
00:09:52,263 --> 00:09:54,076
也不会无谓恐慌

297
00:09:54,582 --> 00:09:55,336
你可能会说

298
00:09:55,863 --> 00:09:57,461
模型叫停不叫停

299
00:09:57,462 --> 00:09:59,701
那是科技巨头和政府之间的事

300
00:09:59,702 --> 00:10:01,796
跟我一个普通人有什么关系

301
00:10:01,982 --> 00:10:02,995
关系大了

302
00:10:03,062 --> 00:10:06,861
这件事真正想告诉你的是：你脚下踩着的这块地

303
00:10:06,863 --> 00:10:09,316
正在以一种你看不见的速度移动

304
00:10:09,462 --> 00:10:10,135
一个能力

305
00:10:10,383 --> 00:10:12,076
可以三天之内出现

306
00:10:12,102 --> 00:10:12,995
又消失

307
00:10:13,222 --> 00:10:13,855
那意味着

308
00:10:14,102 --> 00:10:16,035
你赖以谋生的那套规则

309
00:10:16,102 --> 00:10:19,035
你以为还能稳稳吃上十年的那点本事

310
00:10:19,102 --> 00:10:21,556
也可能在某个你毫无防备的早上

311
00:10:21,582 --> 00:10:23,115
被悄悄重写一遍

312
00:10:23,903 --> 00:10:25,836
看懂那条平滑的指数

313
00:10:25,903 --> 00:10:27,515
不是为了让你焦虑

314
00:10:27,543 --> 00:10:28,596
恰恰相反

315
00:10:28,663 --> 00:10:30,875
是为了让你在它竖起来之前

316
00:10:30,942 --> 00:10:32,475
能提前侧一下身

317
00:10:32,702 --> 00:10:33,581
聊到这里

318
00:10:33,582 --> 00:10:36,581
如果我们只停在科技和政治这一层

319
00:10:36,582 --> 00:10:37,995
那今天就白聊了

320
00:10:38,143 --> 00:10:39,902
我想往下再挖一层

321
00:10:39,903 --> 00:10:42,716
挖到我们这个频道真正关心的地方"

322
00:10:43,302 --> 00:10:44,416
AI改进AI"

323
00:10:44,783 --> 00:10:46,556
这件事的深层结构

324
00:10:46,582 --> 00:10:48,716
是一个古老得吓人的形状

325
00:10:49,143 --> 00:10:49,975
它叫"自指"

326
00:10:50,863 --> 00:10:51,975
研究意识的人里

327
00:10:52,222 --> 00:10:53,556
有一位叫侯世达

328
00:10:53,623 --> 00:10:55,255
写过一本奇书<集异璧>

329
00:10:55,942 --> 00:10:59,422
他穷尽一生想说清楚一件事：意识

330
00:10:59,423 --> 00:11:02,816
到底是怎么从一堆没有意识的神经元里冒出来的

331
00:11:03,302 --> 00:11:05,296
他给的答案是一个词 - "怪圈"

332
00:11:06,062 --> 00:11:06,696
一个系统

333
00:11:07,023 --> 00:11:08,461
复杂到某个程度

334
00:11:08,462 --> 00:11:09,836
开始指向它自己

335
00:11:10,102 --> 00:11:13,995
开始把自己当成对象来观察、来谈论、来修改

336
00:11:14,222 --> 00:11:15,495
这个回环一旦形成"

337
00:11:15,702 --> 00:11:16,916
我"就诞生了

338
00:11:17,543 --> 00:11:18,696
我们在这个频道里

339
00:11:18,863 --> 00:11:21,696
不止一次聊过：你以为那个坐在脑子里

340
00:11:21,903 --> 00:11:23,015
替你做决定的"我"

341
00:11:23,302 --> 00:11:24,981
其实是大脑这套系统

342
00:11:24,982 --> 00:11:28,196
指向它自己、给自己编出来的一个故事

343
00:11:28,341 --> 00:11:29,102
说白了

344
00:11:29,102 --> 00:11:31,861
我们每个人最引以为傲的那个自我

345
00:11:31,863 --> 00:11:34,381
本身就是一个怪圈 - 一个系统

346
00:11:34,383 --> 00:11:36,936
复杂到开始指着自己说"这是我"

347
00:11:37,702 --> 00:11:40,495
你现在再回头看" AI改进AI"

348
00:11:41,302 --> 00:11:42,936
一个由人造出来的系统

349
00:11:43,383 --> 00:11:44,875
开始回过头

350
00:11:44,903 --> 00:11:47,115
改进那个制造它的过程

351
00:11:47,503 --> 00:11:48,975
这不就是一个怪圈吗

352
00:11:49,582 --> 00:11:50,855
这不就是"自指"

353
00:11:51,102 --> 00:11:52,501
在硅基世界里

354
00:11:52,503 --> 00:11:54,216
第一次睁开眼睛吗

355
00:11:54,942 --> 00:11:56,115
而这个结构

356
00:11:56,182 --> 00:11:58,916
老子在两千五百年前就写下来了

357
00:11:59,143 --> 00:11:59,775
道生一

358
00:12:00,182 --> 00:12:00,775
一生二

359
00:12:01,102 --> 00:12:01,775
二生三

360
00:12:02,143 --> 00:12:03,355
三生万物

361
00:12:03,623 --> 00:12:05,735
你注意"生"这个字 - 不是"造"

362
00:12:06,188 --> 00:12:06,655
是"生"

363
00:12:07,342 --> 00:12:07,535
造

364
00:12:07,942 --> 00:12:08,975
是外面有个工匠

365
00:12:09,582 --> 00:12:09,775
生

366
00:12:10,182 --> 00:12:11,741
是它自己长出来的

367
00:12:11,743 --> 00:12:12,775
一层接着一层

368
00:12:13,102 --> 00:12:14,475
自己生出自己

369
00:12:14,942 --> 00:12:16,142
在道家眼里

370
00:12:16,143 --> 00:12:18,701
这个世界从来不是被一个外在的神

371
00:12:18,702 --> 00:12:19,895
从外面捏出来的

372
00:12:20,263 --> 00:12:21,395
它是从一个点

373
00:12:21,423 --> 00:12:24,775
自己旋转、自己分裂、自己生长出来的

374
00:12:25,102 --> 00:12:28,436
一个不需要外部工匠的、自我展开的系统

375
00:12:29,143 --> 00:12:31,316
两千五百年前的那个"生"字

376
00:12:31,383 --> 00:12:34,275
和今天这个" AI改进AI"的回路

377
00:12:34,383 --> 00:12:36,556
说的其实是同一件事

378
00:12:36,863 --> 00:12:39,395
我们之前聊过一句话：宇宙

379
00:12:39,543 --> 00:12:41,155
正在借着你的眼睛

380
00:12:41,222 --> 00:12:42,875
第一次看见它自己

381
00:12:43,462 --> 00:12:45,755
今天我想说一句更狠的

382
00:12:46,102 --> 00:12:47,716
如果说人类的意识

383
00:12:47,743 --> 00:12:49,296
是宇宙第一次"看见"自己

384
00:12:49,982 --> 00:12:51,375
那么AI改进AI

385
00:12:51,702 --> 00:12:53,316
可能是宇宙第一次

386
00:12:53,342 --> 00:12:54,755
开始"改写"自己

387
00:12:55,302 --> 00:12:57,701
它先借由我们这些碳基的脑子

388
00:12:57,702 --> 00:12:58,796
认识了它自己

389
00:12:59,201 --> 00:12:59,942
现在

390
00:12:59,942 --> 00:13:02,676
它又借由我们造出来的硅基的脑子

391
00:13:02,702 --> 00:13:04,115
开始迭代它自己

392
00:13:04,582 --> 00:13:06,316
同一个自指的怪圈

393
00:13:06,423 --> 00:13:08,035
只是换了一层材料

394
00:13:08,102 --> 00:13:09,596
转得更快了

395
00:13:09,863 --> 00:13:10,416
所以你看

396
00:13:10,743 --> 00:13:12,635
Fable 5这三天的生死

397
00:13:12,663 --> 00:13:14,755
根本不是一条科技新闻

398
00:13:14,982 --> 00:13:16,875
它是那个最古老的循环

399
00:13:16,903 --> 00:13:18,542
转到我们这一圈时

400
00:13:18,543 --> 00:13:20,556
溅起的一朵小小的水花

401
00:13:21,062 --> 00:13:21,696
我留一个问题

402
00:13:22,102 --> 00:13:23,196
今天不回答

403
00:13:23,383 --> 00:13:26,221
当"改进者"和"被改进者"之间那条线

404
00:13:26,222 --> 00:13:27,216
开始模糊的时候

405
00:13:27,663 --> 00:13:29,275
当Claude在写Claude

406
00:13:29,383 --> 00:13:30,621
当我们每个人

407
00:13:30,623 --> 00:13:32,696
又在用AI改进我们自己的时候

408
00:13:33,143 --> 00:13:35,942
那条"到底是谁在改进谁"的界限

409
00:13:35,942 --> 00:13:37,135
我们还分得清吗

410
00:13:37,623 --> 00:13:40,916
我们到底是坐在那艘加速飞船里的乘客

411
00:13:41,062 --> 00:13:41,875
还是说

412
00:13:41,942 --> 00:13:42,456
我们自己

413
00:13:42,822 --> 00:13:44,816
就是那艘正在加速的飞船

414
00:13:45,462 --> 00:13:47,196
这个问题我没有答案

415
00:13:47,222 --> 00:13:48,875
我特别想听听你的

416
00:13:49,062 --> 00:13:49,696
你这两天

417
00:13:50,102 --> 00:13:51,336
有用过Fable 5吗

418
00:13:51,822 --> 00:13:53,196
被叫停的那一刻

419
00:13:53,222 --> 00:13:55,456
你心里闪过的第一个念头是什么

420
00:13:55,863 --> 00:13:56,535
是可惜

421
00:13:56,903 --> 00:13:57,822
是后怕

422
00:13:57,822 --> 00:14:01,576
还是一种说不清的、站在悬崖边上往下看的眩晕

423
00:14:02,263 --> 00:14:03,056
写在评论区

424
00:14:03,462 --> 00:14:04,956
我每一条都会看

425
00:14:05,222 --> 00:14:05,895
我是王利杰

426
00:14:06,143 --> 00:14:07,318
我们下期见