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海盗汪直临终预言

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三百年后应验在大清

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1559年冬

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杭州刑场

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一个戴枷囚犯被押跪在地

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监斩官照例问他有无遗言

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他没喊冤

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也没求饶

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只抬头望了望灰蒙蒙的天

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说了句怪话

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他说

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杀我一人不要紧

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只怕连累两浙百姓

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接着又补了半句

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这半句在正史里查不到确切出处

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是后人替他记下来的 但它准得让人发毛

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他像是对在场众人说

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又像是对三百年后的历史说 天朝若不察海上大势

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百年之后

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华夏必受夷蕃之辱

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在场所有人都把这当成海盗头子临死的疯话

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刀光一闪

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人头落地

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巨寇伏法

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大伙儿都觉得这事翻篇了

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东南沿海从此太平

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但请先停三秒

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别急着往下听

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在心里答我一个问题

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这人到底是谁

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凭什么敢在临死前诅咒一个王朝

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这诅咒又为何在三百年后

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一字一句 以比他预言惨烈百倍的方式

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应验在另一个王朝身上

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哈喽

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大家好

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我是王利杰

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今天这故事不是简单的历史八卦

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它像一面镜子

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照出一个文明在范式转移时

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为何总亲手杀死自己的先知

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最让人脊背发凉的是

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听完你可能会意识到

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我们今天或许正站在类似的历史岔路口

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这人叫汪直

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他并非生来就是海盗

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至少起初不是

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他是徽州歙县人

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大约生于1501年

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俗话说 无徽不成商

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徽州男人若不读书考功名

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便出门做生意

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这是刻在骨子里的传统

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汪直便是典型的徽州商人

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脑子活 胆子大

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不甘心只在老家倒腾盐茶

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当时最大的生意是什么

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海上贸易

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说到这儿

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很多人觉得逻辑很顺 明朝海禁是因为倭寇骚扰沿海

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朝廷关门禁海是合理的防御政策

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倭寇都是日本人

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烧杀抢掠

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汪直勾结倭寇残害同胞

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被杀罪有应得

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这逻辑链听着天衣无缝

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问题出在哪

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出在第二步

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倭寇都是日本人 这个前提

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错了

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真相是

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明中后期所谓的倭寇

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绝大多数其实是中国人

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朝廷海禁断了沿海数百万人的生路

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百姓活不下去

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只能铤而走险下海走私

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走着走着就成了亦商亦盗的武装集团

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真正的日本浪人只占少数

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且多是中国海商雇来的打手

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这就形成了一个荒诞的逻辑闭环

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朝廷说禁海为防倭寇

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可倭寇主体恰恰是被禁海逼出来的中国人

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越禁

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走私利润越高

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利润越高

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冒险的人越多

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冲突越激烈

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朝廷越觉得不能开海

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好比家里老鼠多

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你不抓老鼠

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反倒把厨房门焊死

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结果老鼠在封闭空间里繁殖

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越来越多 越来越凶

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你反而得出结论 看吧

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我就说厨房里全是老鼠

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幸亏焊死了门

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汪直就是在这荒诞游戏里摸爬滚打起来的

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他很快发现海上江湖水比想象中深得多

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有中国走私商 日本浪人

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还有刚冒头的葡萄牙人

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大家为争航线港口

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天天打得你死我活

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汪直非但没被吞掉

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反而如鱼得水

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他有项旁人没有的天赋 懂得建立秩序

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他讲义气

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赚钱愿分给兄弟

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脑子也活

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别人还在用刀砍人

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他已从葡萄牙人那儿引进了佛郎机炮和火绳枪

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他把大本营设在日本九州外海的平户岛

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建港口 修仓库

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俨然海上土皇帝

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自号 五峰船主

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有个细节值得一提

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1543年

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一艘从中国出发的船遇台风漂到日本南部的种子岛

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船上除中国水手外

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还有三个葡萄牙人

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岛主见到葡萄牙人的火绳枪

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惊为天人

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重金买下并组织工匠仿制

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这种火绳枪后来被日本人称为 铁炮

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织田信长能横扫天下

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靠的就是铁炮

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后世流传的三段击战术也是从这里长出来的传说

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整个日本战国时代的军事革命

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正源于这次看似偶然的漂流

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据日本 铁炮记 记载

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那艘把葡萄牙人带到日本的船上

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有个自称 儒生五峰 的中国人

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用笔谈跟岛主交涉补给

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许多研究者相信

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儒生五峰 就是汪直本人

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因为他的号正是 五峰

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可见汪直已非普通商人

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而是同时掌握国际贸易 军事技术转移

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外交周旋三重能力的超级玩家

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在日本

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他跟几个强藩大名称兄道弟

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在海上

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只要亮出五峰船旗

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从马六甲到日本列岛

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一般海盗都得绕道走

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他建立起一套秩序 规定航线 制定规则 提供安保

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想在他势力范围内做生意

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可以

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交保护费 挂五峰旗

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便能一路平安

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但请注意

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这个拥有海上帝国的人

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心里想的居然不是造反

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也不是独立

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他想的是什么

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是让生意合法化

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这正是汪直最了不起 也最悲剧之处

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他骨子里始终是徽州商人

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算得清账

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他知道走私终究不长久

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今天官府睁只眼闭只眼

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明天就可能围剿

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天天提心吊胆

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生意做不大

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最好的局面是朝廷开放海禁

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允许民间合法贸易 朝廷收税

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商人赚钱

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百姓有活路

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海盗失去生存土壤

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倭患自然消失

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这是四赢的局面 国家赢 商人赢 百姓赢 边疆赢

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为了说服朝廷接受这个四赢的未来

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汪直主动做了一件事 帮明朝剿匪

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他利用海上力量

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主动抓捕真正的暴力团伙

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一个个独立海盗头子被他亲手绑送官府

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浙江海道副使李文进甚至主动联络他

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借他的力剿灭了大盗陈思盼

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那几年

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官府对他的私人贸易睁一只眼闭一只眼

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他的船队在舟山一带来去自如

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那是汪直最风光的时候

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也是东南沿海最繁荣的时候

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双屿港一度成为东亚最大的国际贸易中心

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每天上百艘船进出

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日本 琉球 暹罗 葡萄牙商人云集于此

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沿海百姓争相把子弟送进汪直船队当水手

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因为工钱比种地高十倍

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汪直以为离梦想越来越近

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只要继续向朝廷证明开海后的景象

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朝廷总有一天会想明白

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但他太天真了

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犯了几乎所有先知都会犯的致命错误

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以为方案足够正确

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就一定能被采纳

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他低估了一件事 旧秩序本身的惯性

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这里要把视角从海上切到北京朝堂

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嘉靖朝里

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禁海派力量占压倒性优势

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在他们看来

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所有下海者本质上都是潜在叛贼

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汪直今天帮你抓海盗

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明天自己就是最大海盗

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他们认为倭患根源就在于汪直这种人勾结内外

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只要灭了汪直

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海自然就清净了

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1548年

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浙江巡抚朱纨派部将卢镗率军突袭双屿港

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一把火烧了这个亚洲最大自由贸易港

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还用木石把港口填平

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五年后的1553年

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提督浙江军务的王忬

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又派俞大猷深夜突袭汪直在沥港的新基地

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汪直措手不及

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船队损失惨重

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连妻儿都被官军抓走

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他带着残部狼狈逃回日本

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这一仗彻底击碎了他的幻想

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他想不通

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真的想不通

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他帮朝廷剿匪 让百姓吃饱 维持海上秩序

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到底做错了什么

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愤怒与失望让他走向另一个极端

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他不再谈招安 不再提开市

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索性扯起反旗

225
00:08:33,622 --> 00:08:34,504
自称 徽王

226
00:08:35,101 --> 00:08:38,100
在日本基地建立官署 分封部属

227
00:08:38,101 --> 00:08:40,365
俨然要与大明分庭抗礼

228
00:08:40,701 --> 00:08:42,325
从1554年起

229
00:08:42,341 --> 00:08:46,365
汪直的报复舰队铺天盖地扑向大明东南沿海

230
00:08:46,461 --> 00:08:48,793
这支军队跟以往任何倭寇都不同

231
00:08:48,803 --> 00:08:52,764
有统一指挥 战略目标 精良武器

232
00:08:52,782 --> 00:08:54,365
甚至有葡萄牙火炮

233
00:08:55,062 --> 00:08:57,365
明军卫所常年吃空饷

234
00:08:57,461 --> 00:09:00,365
在这支军队面前几乎不堪一击

235
00:09:00,581 --> 00:09:03,605
几十个倭寇竟能一路杀到南京城下

236
00:09:03,861 --> 00:09:06,465
这就是历史上著名的 嘉靖大倭患

237
00:09:07,101 --> 00:09:09,541
朝廷这才发现事情搞砸了

238
00:09:09,542 --> 00:09:13,524
而且砸得很彻底 打垮了一个想当忠臣的汪直

239
00:09:13,581 --> 00:09:15,804
逼出了一个要造反的徽王

240
00:09:16,705 --> 00:09:18,327
东南彻底糜烂

241
00:09:18,825 --> 00:09:21,128
朝廷换上新人胡宗宪

242
00:09:21,585 --> 00:09:22,947
胡宗宪也是徽州人

243
00:09:23,305 --> 00:09:24,807
跟汪直是老乡

244
00:09:25,305 --> 00:09:26,807
这是关键变量

245
00:09:27,224 --> 00:09:31,128
他到任后一眼看出症结 硬打赢不了

246
00:09:31,465 --> 00:09:33,047
汪直根基在日本

247
00:09:33,224 --> 00:09:34,667
打散了马上又回来

248
00:09:34,904 --> 00:09:35,927
没完没了

249
00:09:36,104 --> 00:09:38,088
唯一办法还是招抚

250
00:09:38,270 --> 00:09:40,372
胡宗宪开始精心布局

251
00:09:40,670 --> 00:09:43,669
他放出狱中的汪直老母 妻儿

252
00:09:43,670 --> 00:09:44,553
好生供养

253
00:09:45,150 --> 00:09:47,093
又派使者冒死去日本

254
00:09:47,150 --> 00:09:50,213
带去一封措辞极诚恳的亲笔信

255
00:09:50,469 --> 00:09:52,172
信中说 老乡

256
00:09:52,270 --> 00:09:53,833
之前朝廷确有不对

257
00:09:54,229 --> 00:09:55,772
但现在我来了

258
00:09:55,829 --> 00:09:56,672
只要你归顺

259
00:09:56,949 --> 00:09:58,693
我保证既往不咎

260
00:09:58,790 --> 00:10:01,108
还奏请皇上开放市舶

261
00:10:01,109 --> 00:10:03,252
让你光明正大做生意

262
00:10:03,630 --> 00:10:07,612
这封信精准击中了汪直心底最柔软的地方

263
00:10:07,949 --> 00:10:10,213
汪直是被误解了一辈子的人

264
00:10:10,349 --> 00:10:11,588
他毕生所求

265
00:10:11,589 --> 00:10:15,492
不过是从海盗变商人 从叛贼变功臣

266
00:10:15,750 --> 00:10:17,108
胡宗宪这封信

267
00:10:17,109 --> 00:10:19,372
给了他等了半辈子的台阶

268
00:10:20,218 --> 00:10:22,801
他对手下说 我本不想造反

269
00:10:22,858 --> 00:10:24,617
如今胡总督这么有诚意

270
00:10:24,618 --> 00:10:25,842
还放了我老娘

271
00:10:25,899 --> 00:10:26,942
我怎能不回去

272
00:10:27,858 --> 00:10:28,582
1557年

273
00:10:28,858 --> 00:10:31,842
汪直亲率船队停靠舟山岑港

274
00:10:31,978 --> 00:10:34,881
派养子毛海峰先去见胡宗宪探路

275
00:10:35,019 --> 00:10:36,538
胡宗宪热情接待

276
00:10:36,539 --> 00:10:39,482
还把自己的幕僚送到汪直船上做人质

277
00:10:39,659 --> 00:10:41,521
汪直彻底放下戒心

278
00:10:41,618 --> 00:10:44,681
将大部分船队和兵力交给毛海峰留守

279
00:10:44,779 --> 00:10:47,722
自己只带几个亲信随使者去了杭州

280
00:10:48,139 --> 00:10:50,242
他准备了一份详细计划书

281
00:10:50,338 --> 00:10:51,818
不仅有通商方案

282
00:10:51,819 --> 00:10:53,921
还有日本各大名势力分析

283
00:10:54,019 --> 00:10:56,541
甚至承诺未来由他管理通商口岸

284
00:10:56,819 --> 00:10:58,681
担保日本不再出倭寇

285
00:10:59,419 --> 00:11:00,421
他泛舟西湖

286
00:11:00,698 --> 00:11:02,121
心情无比舒畅

287
00:11:02,458 --> 00:11:04,801
多年来从未如此放松过

288
00:11:05,019 --> 00:11:07,418
他以为奋斗了一辈子的四赢未来

289
00:11:07,419 --> 00:11:08,842
终于要实现了

290
00:11:09,142 --> 00:11:10,284
可就在这时

291
00:11:10,341 --> 00:11:12,565
一个叫王本固的人跳了出来

292
00:11:12,822 --> 00:11:13,345
王本固

293
00:11:13,701 --> 00:11:15,245
浙江巡按御史

294
00:11:15,302 --> 00:11:17,924
彻头彻尾的禁海派死硬分子

295
00:11:18,022 --> 00:11:20,365
他看不惯胡宗宪招安汪直

296
00:11:20,381 --> 00:11:21,884
觉得是养虎为患

297
00:11:21,942 --> 00:11:25,804
更容不得一个海盗头子在杭州城里悠哉游哉

298
00:11:26,062 --> 00:11:29,985
他做了件彻底改变历史走向的事 绕过总督胡宗宪

299
00:11:30,262 --> 00:11:31,900
直接动用御史权力

300
00:11:31,902 --> 00:11:34,044
派兵抓了正在杭州的汪直

301
00:11:34,703 --> 00:11:35,506
被抓那一刻

302
00:11:35,823 --> 00:11:37,646
汪直整个人是懵的

303
00:11:37,943 --> 00:11:39,785
他大声质问 我有什么罪

304
00:11:40,223 --> 00:11:41,506
我不是来投诚的吗

305
00:11:42,223 --> 00:11:43,246
无人应答

306
00:11:43,662 --> 00:11:45,226
胡宗宪上疏辩解

307
00:11:45,583 --> 00:11:47,565
说汪直是来投降的

308
00:11:47,662 --> 00:11:51,102
杀他会失信于人 激怒其海上部下

309
00:11:51,103 --> 00:11:52,766
倭患必将再起

310
00:11:53,142 --> 00:11:55,965
可朝中禁海派借机大做文章

311
00:11:56,063 --> 00:11:59,406
指责胡宗宪通倭 汪直狼子野心

312
00:11:59,703 --> 00:12:02,845
嘉靖皇帝本就对海上事务不感兴趣

313
00:12:02,902 --> 00:12:04,565
听大臣吵得心烦

314
00:12:04,622 --> 00:12:06,126
最后拍板 杀

315
00:12:06,447 --> 00:12:06,850
狱中

316
00:12:07,167 --> 00:12:08,730
汪直写下 自明疏

317
00:12:09,287 --> 00:12:11,429
这是他留给历史的最后一封信

318
00:12:11,687 --> 00:12:13,049
他仍在为自己辩解

319
00:12:13,287 --> 00:12:14,590
仍呼吁开海

320
00:12:14,726 --> 00:12:16,525
他说自己在海上做生意

321
00:12:16,526 --> 00:12:18,470
让两浙百姓有饭吃

322
00:12:18,526 --> 00:12:20,789
还帮朝廷抓了那么多真海盗

323
00:12:20,967 --> 00:12:22,350
功劳上面不知道

324
00:12:22,366 --> 00:12:23,850
反倒落得抄家下场

325
00:12:24,167 --> 00:12:25,189
实在不甘

326
00:12:25,646 --> 00:12:26,169
到最后

327
00:12:26,447 --> 00:12:28,159
他念念不忘的还是那件事

328
00:12:28,169 --> 00:12:31,970
请求在浙江也像广东那样设立海关

329
00:12:32,287 --> 00:12:34,429
允许通商 正常纳税

330
00:12:34,687 --> 00:12:36,189
既能让国家赚钱

331
00:12:36,246 --> 00:12:38,269
也能让日本按时朝贡

332
00:12:38,287 --> 00:12:40,750
这份奏疏未得到任何回应

333
00:12:41,490 --> 00:12:42,614
1559年冬

334
00:12:43,010 --> 00:12:44,354
他被押上刑场

335
00:12:44,531 --> 00:12:48,409
临死前说了那两句话 杀我一个不要紧

336
00:12:48,411 --> 00:12:50,433
只怕连累两浙百姓

337
00:12:50,730 --> 00:12:52,813
天朝若不察海上大势

338
00:12:53,090 --> 00:12:54,169
百年之后

339
00:12:54,171 --> 00:12:56,013
华夏必受夷蕃之辱

340
00:12:57,111 --> 00:12:58,773
第一句话很快应验

341
00:12:59,310 --> 00:13:00,733
消息传到海上

342
00:13:00,791 --> 00:13:04,253
养子毛海峰当场杀掉胡宗宪派来的人质

343
00:13:04,350 --> 00:13:05,814
扯起复仇大旗

344
00:13:06,070 --> 00:13:09,613
原本被汪直整合的海上势力瞬间失控

345
00:13:09,671 --> 00:13:11,853
群龙无首 各自为战

346
00:13:12,111 --> 00:13:13,233
他们不再有幻想

347
00:13:13,511 --> 00:13:14,733
也不再有底线

348
00:13:14,871 --> 00:13:18,054
唯一的念头就是复仇 烧 杀

349
00:13:18,631 --> 00:13:21,373
倭患比汪直活着时严重了十倍

350
00:13:21,710 --> 00:13:24,414
整个东南沿海沦为人间地狱

351
00:13:24,631 --> 00:13:26,253
胡宗宪焦头烂额

352
00:13:26,430 --> 00:13:30,133
戚继光 俞大猷等名将打了整整十几年

353
00:13:30,190 --> 00:13:31,794
无数士兵百姓丧命

354
00:13:32,111 --> 00:13:33,973
才勉强稳住局势

355
00:13:34,329 --> 00:13:36,291
而那个搞砸一切的王本固呢

356
00:13:36,809 --> 00:13:37,612
虽被弹劾

357
00:13:38,008 --> 00:13:39,632
却没受实质处分

358
00:13:39,969 --> 00:13:43,791
一个愚蠢偏执的决定让无数人付出生命代价

359
00:13:43,929 --> 00:13:47,232
做决定的人转头就去吃下一顿饭了

360
00:13:47,569 --> 00:13:49,951
历史有时就这么残酷

361
00:13:50,408 --> 00:13:51,671
但故事还没完

362
00:13:52,128 --> 00:13:54,112
历史最大的讽刺在后头

363
00:13:54,928 --> 00:13:56,172
汪直死后八年

364
00:13:56,448 --> 00:13:57,592
嘉靖驾崩

365
00:13:57,609 --> 00:13:58,531
隆庆即位

366
00:13:58,889 --> 00:14:00,832
朝中政治风向变了

367
00:14:01,088 --> 00:14:02,207
1567年

368
00:14:02,208 --> 00:14:05,751
明朝政府正式宣布在福建月港开港

369
00:14:05,848 --> 00:14:08,952
允许民间船只远航东西二洋

370
00:14:09,249 --> 00:14:11,292
这就是著名的 隆庆开海

371
00:14:11,889 --> 00:14:13,727
汪直用命追求的梦想

372
00:14:13,728 --> 00:14:16,552
在他死后八年戏剧性地实现了

373
00:14:16,789 --> 00:14:18,413
效果立竿见影

374
00:14:18,669 --> 00:14:23,212
无数商船从福建月港出发驶向马尼拉 驶向东南亚

375
00:14:23,510 --> 00:14:26,893
彼时西班牙人正在美洲疯狂开采银矿

376
00:14:26,949 --> 00:14:30,108
这些美洲白银通过马尼拉大帆船贸易

377
00:14:30,110 --> 00:14:32,012
如潮水般涌入中国

378
00:14:32,230 --> 00:14:34,012
据现代史学家估算

379
00:14:34,110 --> 00:14:36,533
16世纪末到17世纪中叶

380
00:14:36,549 --> 00:14:40,893
全球生产的白银有三分之一到二分之一流入大明

381
00:14:41,110 --> 00:14:44,352
这笔巨额财富为张居正一条鞭法改革

382
00:14:44,669 --> 00:14:48,053
万历三大征的军事胜利提供了坚实经济基础

383
00:14:48,701 --> 00:14:52,533
历史用最残酷也最明白的方式证明汪直是对的

384
00:14:52,543 --> 00:14:54,764
开放带来繁荣

385
00:14:54,782 --> 00:14:56,524
封闭导致溃烂

386
00:14:56,701 --> 00:14:57,545
只是这一切

387
00:14:57,902 --> 00:14:59,205
他都看不到了

388
00:14:59,742 --> 00:15:00,705
故事讲到这里

389
00:15:00,941 --> 00:15:02,604
似乎可以画句号了

390
00:15:02,662 --> 00:15:05,724
一个被时代辜负的先知沉冤得雪

391
00:15:05,782 --> 00:15:07,364
理念开花结果

392
00:15:07,502 --> 00:15:10,404
但别忘了汪直还有另外半句预言

393
00:15:10,581 --> 00:15:12,620
他说的是 百年之后

394
00:15:12,622 --> 00:15:14,305
华夏必受夷蕃之辱

395
00:15:15,281 --> 00:15:19,344
隆庆开海让这句预言的上半场失效了

396
00:15:19,602 --> 00:15:20,964
整个明朝后半段

397
00:15:21,242 --> 00:15:22,840
中国非但没受辱

398
00:15:22,842 --> 00:15:25,265
反而成了全球贸易体系中心

399
00:15:25,362 --> 00:15:26,984
赚得盆满钵满

400
00:15:27,442 --> 00:15:30,545
可历史最擅长的就是黑色幽默

401
00:15:30,962 --> 00:15:31,804
明朝亡了

402
00:15:32,161 --> 00:15:33,304
清朝来了

403
00:15:33,602 --> 00:15:34,944
清军入关后

404
00:15:35,002 --> 00:15:38,184
为剿灭南明和郑成功抗清势力

405
00:15:38,202 --> 00:15:41,704
做出了比明朝海禁极端百倍的决定

406
00:15:42,122 --> 00:15:46,704
迁界令 强迫沿海居民内迁三十到五十里

407
00:15:46,962 --> 00:15:50,025
界外房屋全烧 田地全荒

408
00:15:50,122 --> 00:15:52,064
越界者格杀勿论

409
00:15:52,401 --> 00:15:56,984
整个东南沿海被硬生生划出一条宽几十里的无人带

410
00:15:57,322 --> 00:15:58,444
这已不是禁海

411
00:15:58,761 --> 00:15:59,864
是毁海

412
00:16:01,173 --> 00:16:02,917
后来迁界令虽废

413
00:16:03,014 --> 00:16:07,317
但清朝统治者骨子里对海洋 对海外充满恐惧

414
00:16:07,533 --> 00:16:08,657
他们搞 一口通商

415
00:16:08,933 --> 00:16:10,653
只留广州一个口岸

416
00:16:10,654 --> 00:16:12,197
还设重重限制

417
00:16:12,413 --> 00:16:15,037
国门关得比明朝任何时期都紧

418
00:16:15,213 --> 00:16:17,677
他们以为这样就能万世太平

419
00:16:17,774 --> 00:16:18,297
结果呢

420
00:16:18,813 --> 00:16:19,537
三百年后

421
00:16:19,774 --> 00:16:21,037
1840年

422
00:16:21,173 --> 00:16:24,876
英国人的坚船利炮轰开了那扇紧闭的大门

423
00:16:25,213 --> 00:16:27,376
汪直时代刚在东南沿海冒头

424
00:16:27,654 --> 00:16:30,797
被中国人笼统叫作 夷人 的那批西洋人

425
00:16:30,854 --> 00:16:33,413
他们的后来者用更先进的武器

426
00:16:33,413 --> 00:16:36,197
把天朝上国打得落花流水

427
00:16:37,014 --> 00:16:41,612
南京条约 北京条约 马关条约 一个个屈辱条约

428
00:16:41,614 --> 00:16:43,236
一次次割地赔款

429
00:16:43,413 --> 00:16:45,653
汪直当年那句 百年之后

430
00:16:45,654 --> 00:16:47,917
华夏必受夷蕃之辱 的预言

431
00:16:47,933 --> 00:16:51,773
在三百年后以他自己都想象不到的惨烈方式

432
00:16:51,774 --> 00:16:53,596
字字句句应验了

433
00:16:53,889 --> 00:16:56,013
我不知道林则徐虎门销烟时

434
00:16:56,369 --> 00:16:59,993
李鸿章哀叹 三千年未有之大变局 时

435
00:17:00,129 --> 00:17:02,952
有没有在某个深夜翻开故纸堆

436
00:17:03,050 --> 00:17:06,192
看到那个叫汪直的徽州商人的故事

437
00:17:06,529 --> 00:17:08,692
那个三百年前苦口婆心

438
00:17:09,009 --> 00:17:13,673
甚至不惜以命为代价要推开国门 拥抱海洋的人

439
00:17:13,969 --> 00:17:16,928
如果当初嘉靖皇帝听了胡宗宪的

440
00:17:16,929 --> 00:17:18,413
让汪直主持开海

441
00:17:18,850 --> 00:17:23,569
如果大明能提前一百年全面融入全球化海洋贸易

442
00:17:23,570 --> 00:17:24,973
历史会走向何方

443
00:17:25,530 --> 00:17:26,513
我们不知道

444
00:17:26,649 --> 00:17:29,112
我们只知道汪直死在了杭州

445
00:17:29,250 --> 00:17:30,569
很长一段时间里

446
00:17:30,570 --> 00:17:33,352
他的名字都是 倭寇头子 的代名词

447
00:17:33,882 --> 00:17:36,146
今天在日本长崎县平户市

448
00:17:36,162 --> 00:17:38,745
还保留着汪直当年居所遗址

449
00:17:39,203 --> 00:17:42,226
松浦史料博物馆门口立着他的铜像

450
00:17:42,562 --> 00:17:43,802
日本人记得他

451
00:17:43,803 --> 00:17:46,106
因为他带来了财富和技术

452
00:17:46,322 --> 00:17:47,045
而在中国

453
00:17:47,243 --> 00:17:49,505
他留下的痕迹微乎其微

454
00:17:49,850 --> 00:17:50,730
讲到这儿

455
00:17:50,731 --> 00:17:52,953
我想抛出这期视频真正的问题

456
00:17:53,411 --> 00:17:56,493
为什么一个文明总是选择杀死自己的先知

457
00:17:57,090 --> 00:17:58,513
这不是明朝的问题

458
00:17:58,691 --> 00:18:00,114
也不是中国的问题

459
00:18:00,290 --> 00:18:02,793
是所有旧秩序共同的宿命

460
00:18:03,130 --> 00:18:05,129
苏格拉底被雅典人毒死

461
00:18:05,130 --> 00:18:07,313
布鲁诺被罗马教廷烧死

462
00:18:07,530 --> 00:18:10,354
先知的悲剧从来不是因为说错了

463
00:18:10,370 --> 00:18:11,773
恰恰是因为说对了

464
00:18:12,130 --> 00:18:15,194
说对了一些旧秩序还没准备好接受的话

465
00:18:16,222 --> 00:18:18,741
旧秩序杀死先知不是因为恨

466
00:18:18,742 --> 00:18:19,766
而是因为怕

467
00:18:20,103 --> 00:18:23,925
先知描绘的新世界意味着旧秩序本身的消亡

468
00:18:24,502 --> 00:18:28,341
旧秩序里的既得利益者宁愿让整个文明一起沉船

469
00:18:28,343 --> 00:18:30,685
也不愿放下手里那根烂木头

470
00:18:31,103 --> 00:18:33,861
汪直死时代表的不只是一个人

471
00:18:33,863 --> 00:18:36,606
而是一整套正在崛起的海洋文明

472
00:18:36,782 --> 00:18:39,222
这套文明若当时被大明拥抱

473
00:18:39,222 --> 00:18:42,645
中国完全有机会成为全球化的第一个领导者

474
00:18:42,742 --> 00:18:45,061
不会有三百年后的鸦片战争

475
00:18:45,062 --> 00:18:46,806
不会有百年屈辱

476
00:18:47,183 --> 00:18:49,366
但旧秩序选择了关门

477
00:18:49,742 --> 00:18:51,261
它不是不知道后果

478
00:18:51,262 --> 00:18:53,766
是明明知道后果也要关门

479
00:18:54,542 --> 00:18:55,866
因为对旧秩序来说

480
00:18:56,103 --> 00:18:57,942
控制比繁荣重要

481
00:18:57,943 --> 00:18:59,725
稳定比进化重要

482
00:18:59,782 --> 00:19:02,485
我还在位 比 国家会怎样 重要

483
00:19:02,822 --> 00:19:04,485
这才是真正的悲剧

484
00:19:05,259 --> 00:19:05,942
听到这里

485
00:19:06,098 --> 00:19:07,090
我想请你做一件事

486
00:19:07,100 --> 00:19:11,601
把刚才这个逻辑从四百多年前的明朝挪到今天

487
00:19:11,858 --> 00:19:15,281
在一个从工业文明向智能文明转移的大时代

488
00:19:15,418 --> 00:19:17,142
谁是我们这个时代的汪直

489
00:19:17,578 --> 00:19:19,382
什么是我们这个时代的 海禁

490
00:19:19,819 --> 00:19:23,097
哪一种声音正被当作疯言疯语压下去

491
00:19:23,098 --> 00:19:26,021
却可能在百年后被历史证明是对的

492
00:19:26,459 --> 00:19:27,182
我不给答案

493
00:19:27,418 --> 00:19:28,962
只把问题留在这里

494
00:19:29,856 --> 00:19:31,979
对这期内容大家有什么想法见解

495
00:19:32,417 --> 00:19:35,100
你认为汪直到底是英雄还是海盗

496
00:19:35,616 --> 00:19:37,519
你觉得我们今天这个时代

497
00:19:37,576 --> 00:19:39,340
有没有正在被杀死的 汪直

498
00:19:39,937 --> 00:19:41,640
欢迎在评论区告诉我

499
00:19:41,816 --> 00:19:42,539
我是王利杰

500
00:19:42,856 --> 00:19:43,715
我们下期见