1
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尼采说人生会重演无数次

2
00:00:03,266 --> 00:00:05,953
庞加莱用一条定理差点证明了他

3
00:00:06,225 --> 00:00:07,633
设想有一天深夜

4
00:00:07,706 --> 00:00:10,224
一个恶魔钻进你最孤独的角落

5
00:00:10,226 --> 00:00:12,872
对你说：你现在过的这一生

6
00:00:12,906 --> 00:00:14,132
你必须再过一次

7
00:00:14,426 --> 00:00:15,872
而且是无数次

8
00:00:16,025 --> 00:00:17,472
没有任何新东西

9
00:00:17,705 --> 00:00:21,272
每一次疼痛、每一个念头、每一声叹息

10
00:00:21,346 --> 00:00:24,593
连同此刻你正盯着这个屏幕的这一秒

11
00:00:24,666 --> 00:00:26,913
都会以完全相同的顺序

12
00:00:26,946 --> 00:00:28,753
一遍又一遍地回来

13
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你听到这句话

14
00:00:30,666 --> 00:00:32,073
是会瘫倒在地

15
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咬牙诅咒这个恶魔

16
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还是会回答他一句：太好了

17
00:00:37,026 --> 00:00:38,033
再来一次

18
00:00:38,826 --> 00:00:40,713
说这段话的是尼采

19
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而就在他写下这段话八年之后

20
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一个法国数学家用一条冷冰冰的物理定理

21
00:00:47,706 --> 00:00:48,825
差一点点

22
00:00:48,826 --> 00:00:51,472
就把这个恶魔的预言给证明了

23
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哈喽

24
00:00:52,305 --> 00:00:52,813
大家好

25
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我是王利杰

26
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今天我们要聊的这条定理

27
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叫庞加莱回归

28
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它的名字听起来很学术

29
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但它问的

30
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其实是一个特别古老、特别吓人的问题：这个世界

31
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会不会原样重来

32
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我们先把数学家这一边的故事讲清楚

33
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一八九零年

34
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亨利·庞加莱在研究天体运动的时候

35
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证明了一个结论

36
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这个结论用大白话说出来是这样的

37
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只要一个系统满足两个条件

38
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那么经过足够长的时间

39
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它一定会回到一个跟它最初的状态

40
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几乎一模一样的状态

41
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注意

42
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是一定

43
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不是可能

44
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哪两个条件呢

45
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第一

46
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这个系统是封闭的

47
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能量守恒

48
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跑不掉

49
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粒子被关在一个有限的空间里

50
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不会飞到无穷远去

51
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第二

52
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它的演化是不增不减的

53
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物理学家管这叫保体积

54
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你可以先不用管这个术语

55
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你只要记住

56
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这是一个封闭的、有限的、能量不流失的盒子就行了

57
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满足这两个条件

58
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这个盒子里的一切

59
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无论现在排列得多么复杂

60
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多么独特

61
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只要你等得够久

62
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它早晚会回到今天这个样子

63
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我给你打个最简单的比方

64
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你把一副扑克牌洗乱

65
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五十二张牌排成一个特定的顺序

66
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这个顺序看起来是不是独一无二、再也回不来了

67
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但其实

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五十二张牌的排列方式

69
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虽然多

70
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却是一个有限的数字

71
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只要你不停地洗下去

72
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洗到天荒地老

73
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那个一开始的顺序

74
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理论上一定会再一次出现

75
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不是有可能出现

76
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是数学保证它一定会出现

77
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再换一个画面

78
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你打开一瓶香水

79
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香味慢慢扩散到整个房间

80
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我们的常识告诉我们

81
00:02:38,586 --> 00:02:40,544
这些香水分子散出去了

82
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就再也不可能自己跑回瓶子里

83
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可是庞加莱说

84
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不对

85
00:02:45,346 --> 00:02:47,784
如果这个房间是完全封闭的

86
00:02:47,786 --> 00:02:50,272
那么经过一段极其漫长的时间

87
00:02:50,306 --> 00:02:52,745
这些分子会因为各自乱撞

88
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碰巧又一次全部聚回到瓶口那一小块地方

89
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它一定会发生

90
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你听到这里

91
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心里可能咯噔一下

92
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因为这跟我们从小被教的另一条铁律

93
00:03:04,425 --> 00:03:05,752
是直接打架的

94
00:03:05,906 --> 00:03:08,312
那条铁律叫热力学第二定律

95
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说的是熵增

96
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一切都在从有序走向混乱

97
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覆水难收

98
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破镜难圆

99
00:03:15,346 --> 00:03:18,025
时间这支箭只朝一个方向飞

100
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永不回头

101
00:03:19,466 --> 00:03:22,432
可庞加莱这条定理却在说：别急

102
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箭飞出去了

103
00:03:23,825 --> 00:03:25,052
但只要时间够长

104
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它会自己飞回来

105
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这个矛盾

106
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在一八九六年真的引爆了一场学术大战

107
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当时有一个年轻数学家

108
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叫策梅洛

109
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他抄起庞加莱这条定理

110
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当成一把刀

111
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直接捅向了热力学第二定律的捍卫者 - 玻尔兹曼

112
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策梅洛说：你看

113
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既然封闭系统一定会回到初始状态

114
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那熵就不可能永远增加

115
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它早晚得降回去

116
00:03:51,665 --> 00:03:53,425
所以你那个熵增定律

117
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根本不是什么绝对真理

118
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这一刀捅得又准又狠

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玻尔兹曼怎么回应的

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玻尔兹曼没有否认庞加莱是对的

121
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他承认

122
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系统确实会回归

123
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但他反手就给策梅洛算了一笔账

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他说

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你说得没错

126
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它会回来

127
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可是你知道它要等多久才回来一次吗

128
00:04:14,945 --> 00:04:16,312
这个等待的时间

129
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物理学家后来给它起了个名字

130
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就叫庞加莱回归时间

131
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而这个时间长到什么程度呢

132
00:04:23,625 --> 00:04:26,072
对于一个房间里的空气分子来说

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让它们自己全部聚回墙角一次

134
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需要的时间

135
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远远超过我们整个宇宙到现在为止的年龄

136
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不是超过一点点

137
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是超过到一个你根本无法想象的地步

138
00:04:39,745 --> 00:04:42,593
后来的物理学家做过更夸张的估算

139
00:04:42,865 --> 00:04:46,160
如果把我们今天观测到的这整个宇宙当成

140
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那个封闭的盒子

141
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让它回归到此刻这个状态一次

142
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需要等待的时间大约是十的十次方

143
00:04:53,826 --> 00:04:57,473
再套一个一百二十三次方那么多年

144
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我没法把这个数字念出来

145
00:04:59,706 --> 00:05:01,312
因为它根本写不下

146
00:05:01,906 --> 00:05:03,432
它不是一万亿年

147
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也不是一万亿万亿年

148
00:05:05,985 --> 00:05:08,713
它是一个塔一样叠起来的指数

149
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大到宇宙的年龄在它面前

150
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连一粒灰尘都算不上

151
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所以玻尔兹曼的意思是：兄弟

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你说的回归在数学上没错

153
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但在物理上

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它等于永远不会发生

155
00:05:22,185 --> 00:05:23,372
你这辈子等不到

156
00:05:23,665 --> 00:05:24,985
太阳系等不到

157
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整个宇宙烧成灰

158
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都等不到

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这场仗

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玻尔兹曼用一个天文数字赢了

161
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庞加莱回归被请回了书架

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成了一条正确但没用的定理

163
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到这儿

164
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故事好像就结束了

165
00:05:41,305 --> 00:05:44,913
一个数学上成立、现实中永不兑现的承诺

166
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但是

167
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我们今天这期不是讲物理的

168
00:05:48,425 --> 00:05:50,173
我们要回到开头那个恶魔

169
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回到尼采

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尼采写下永恒复返这个念头

171
00:05:54,786 --> 00:05:56,312
是在一八八二年

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00:05:56,466 --> 00:05:59,233
比庞加莱的定理还早了整整八年

173
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他不是物理学家

174
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他没有相空间

175
00:06:02,266 --> 00:06:03,593
没有刘维尔定理

176
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他靠的是一个纯粹的哲学推演

177
00:06:05,665 --> 00:06:08,713
如果构成世界的物质是有限的

178
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如果能量既不会凭空产生也不会凭空消失

179
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而时间又是无限的

180
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那么有限的状态在无限的时间里反复洗牌

181
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就必然会重复

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一切都会回来

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包括你

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包括此刻

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你看

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00:06:24,346 --> 00:06:25,704
尼采和庞加莱

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一个用诗一样的语言

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一个用数学的语言

189
00:06:28,826 --> 00:06:30,464
几乎在同一个时间

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从两个完全不同的方向

191
00:06:32,505 --> 00:06:34,033
摸到了同一块石头

192
00:06:34,146 --> 00:06:35,944
但尼采真正想问的

193
00:06:35,946 --> 00:06:38,512
从来不是宇宙到底会不会重来

194
00:06:38,706 --> 00:06:41,345
他想问的是：如果它真的会重来

195
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你受得了吗

196
00:06:42,786 --> 00:06:44,833
这就是他说的最重之物

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永恒复返对尼采来说

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00:06:47,225 --> 00:06:48,833
不是一个天文学预言

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00:06:48,946 --> 00:06:51,353
而是一块压在你胸口的试金石

200
00:06:51,665 --> 00:06:54,793
他逼着你看清楚：你现在过的这一天

201
00:06:54,865 --> 00:06:58,144
如果要你一字不改地、永远地重过下去

202
00:06:58,146 --> 00:06:58,973
你是会绝望

203
00:06:59,266 --> 00:07:00,052
还是会感激

204
00:07:00,745 --> 00:07:04,713
如果你一想到要把今天再过一万次就觉得恶心

205
00:07:04,826 --> 00:07:06,752
那说明你今天过得不对

206
00:07:07,026 --> 00:07:09,713
如果你能坦然地说一句再来一次

207
00:07:09,745 --> 00:07:12,432
那才说明你真正活过了这一天

208
00:07:12,985 --> 00:07:13,612
讲到这里

209
00:07:13,826 --> 00:07:15,713
我想给这个古老的命题

210
00:07:15,786 --> 00:07:18,713
再拧一道我们这个频道最关心的弯

211
00:07:19,225 --> 00:07:19,692
这道弯

212
00:07:20,105 --> 00:07:21,473
是关于意识的

213
00:07:21,745 --> 00:07:24,689
我想问一个尼采和庞加莱都没细想的问题

214
00:07:24,699 --> 00:07:26,833
那个重演的你

215
00:07:26,906 --> 00:07:28,413
会知道自己在重演吗

216
00:07:29,026 --> 00:07:29,572
答案是

217
00:07:29,946 --> 00:07:30,552
不会

218
00:07:30,865 --> 00:07:31,673
你想啊

219
00:07:31,706 --> 00:07:35,273
庞加莱回归的条件是回到几乎一模一样的状态

220
00:07:35,425 --> 00:07:36,464
而你的记忆

221
00:07:36,466 --> 00:07:38,673
你这一刻脑子里所有的念头

222
00:07:38,706 --> 00:07:41,153
本身就是这个系统状态的一部分

223
00:07:41,466 --> 00:07:43,713
当宇宙回归到此刻这一帧

224
00:07:43,826 --> 00:07:46,153
你的记忆也被一并重置了

225
00:07:46,466 --> 00:07:47,584
重演的那个你

226
00:07:47,586 --> 00:07:50,785
脑子里不会多出一条记录写着这是第二次

227
00:07:50,786 --> 00:07:52,072
这是第一万次

228
00:07:52,346 --> 00:07:54,150
这就推出一个非常奇妙的结论

229
00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:56,952
如果这一生重演无数次

230
00:07:57,026 --> 00:07:59,333
而每一次的你都不知道前面发生过

231
00:07:59,946 --> 00:08:01,192
那么在体验上

232
00:08:01,225 --> 00:08:03,072
无数次和只有一次

233
00:08:03,105 --> 00:08:04,673
是完全没有区别的

234
00:08:04,865 --> 00:08:07,432
你永远只能活在你的这一次里

235
00:08:07,706 --> 00:08:08,733
无限次的重演

236
00:08:08,985 --> 00:08:10,785
从你的内部往外看

237
00:08:10,786 --> 00:08:14,353
就是干干净净、不多不少的此刻这一遍

238
00:08:14,826 --> 00:08:17,353
而这还不是最让人头晕的地方

239
00:08:17,586 --> 00:08:20,833
顺着玻尔兹曼那个天文数字再往下走一步

240
00:08:20,985 --> 00:08:23,944
后来的物理学家想到了一个更吓人的可能

241
00:08:23,946 --> 00:08:25,952
他们管它叫玻尔兹曼大脑

242
00:08:26,146 --> 00:08:30,185
他们是这么推的：如果宇宙真的会无限地涨落下去

243
00:08:30,185 --> 00:08:33,184
那么在那个漫长到不可思议的时间尺度里

244
00:08:33,186 --> 00:08:36,144
随机涨落出一整个井然有序的宇宙

245
00:08:36,145 --> 00:08:37,653
是极其极其罕见的

246
00:08:38,105 --> 00:08:39,024
相比之下

247
00:08:39,025 --> 00:08:41,225
随机涨落出一个孤零零的大脑

248
00:08:41,225 --> 00:08:44,092
里面还自带了一整套虚假的记忆和念头

249
00:08:44,426 --> 00:08:45,825
这件事要容易得多

250
00:08:45,826 --> 00:08:47,033
也常见得多

251
00:08:47,625 --> 00:08:48,625
换句话说

252
00:08:48,625 --> 00:08:51,312
在所有会冒出来的有意识的东西里

253
00:08:51,346 --> 00:08:54,873
绝大多数压根不是活在真实宇宙里的人

254
00:08:55,025 --> 00:08:56,852
而是一些只存在了一瞬间

255
00:08:57,105 --> 00:09:00,113
就又消散掉的、凭空冒出来的大脑

256
00:09:00,586 --> 00:09:02,013
它们以为自己有童年

257
00:09:02,265 --> 00:09:03,144
有故事

258
00:09:03,145 --> 00:09:04,832
有刚刚发生的过去

259
00:09:04,865 --> 00:09:08,424
可那些全是涨落的时候一次性塞进来的

260
00:09:08,426 --> 00:09:10,232
从来没真实发生过

261
00:09:10,625 --> 00:09:12,013
这个推论吓人在哪儿

262
00:09:12,466 --> 00:09:14,113
它把矛头指向了你

263
00:09:14,306 --> 00:09:15,585
你现在坐在这里

264
00:09:15,586 --> 00:09:17,225
觉得自己活了几十年

265
00:09:17,225 --> 00:09:18,913
有清清楚楚的回忆

266
00:09:18,946 --> 00:09:20,184
可你凭什么确定

267
00:09:20,186 --> 00:09:22,692
你不是那样一个刚刚才涨落出来

268
00:09:22,905 --> 00:09:24,653
自带了全套记忆的大脑

269
00:09:25,105 --> 00:09:26,345
你所谓的过去

270
00:09:26,346 --> 00:09:30,653
会不会只是这一秒钟被打包塞进你脑子里的一段数据

271
00:09:31,306 --> 00:09:32,225
你发现没有

272
00:09:32,225 --> 00:09:34,424
这跟我们刚才说的那个重演的你

273
00:09:34,426 --> 00:09:36,033
其实是同一个幽灵

274
00:09:36,466 --> 00:09:38,664
重演的你不知道自己重演过

275
00:09:38,666 --> 00:09:40,212
因为记忆被重置了

276
00:09:40,905 --> 00:09:43,184
玻尔兹曼大脑以为自己活过

277
00:09:43,186 --> 00:09:45,192
是因为记忆被伪造了

278
00:09:45,466 --> 00:09:49,225
两边指向的是同一件冷酷的事：记忆

279
00:09:49,225 --> 00:09:52,312
根本不能拿来当作你真实活过的证据

280
00:09:52,586 --> 00:09:53,413
我们一直以为

281
00:09:53,785 --> 00:09:55,625
我是谁、我从哪来

282
00:09:55,625 --> 00:09:57,192
靠的是记忆撑着

283
00:09:57,505 --> 00:09:58,384
可记忆

284
00:09:58,385 --> 00:10:01,072
原来是这世上最不牢靠的一根柱子

285
00:10:01,346 --> 00:10:01,893
所以你看

286
00:10:02,306 --> 00:10:03,592
绕了这么大一圈

287
00:10:03,666 --> 00:10:05,345
从庞加莱的定理

288
00:10:05,346 --> 00:10:07,352
到玻尔兹曼的天文数字

289
00:10:07,385 --> 00:10:08,613
再到尼采的恶魔

290
00:10:08,985 --> 00:10:10,544
最后我们落回到的

291
00:10:10,546 --> 00:10:12,832
居然还是那两个字 - 当下

292
00:10:13,225 --> 00:10:14,793
宇宙会不会重来

293
00:10:14,865 --> 00:10:18,952
那个十的一百多次方年的回归时间到底跑不跑得完

294
00:10:19,105 --> 00:10:21,113
其实跟你一点关系都没有

295
00:10:21,265 --> 00:10:24,745
因为你能抓住的、能经历的、能改变的

296
00:10:24,745 --> 00:10:26,712
永远只有眼前这一帧

297
00:10:26,905 --> 00:10:27,212
那么

298
00:10:27,466 --> 00:10:28,544
在这一帧里

299
00:10:28,546 --> 00:10:29,972
你到底能改变什么

300
00:10:30,625 --> 00:10:32,673
熟悉我们频道的朋友都知道

301
00:10:32,706 --> 00:10:35,472
我特别喜欢用两个类比来理解修行

302
00:10:35,785 --> 00:10:38,504
一个是把佛学唯识宗讲的种子

303
00:10:38,505 --> 00:10:40,732
对应到人工智能大模型里的参数

304
00:10:41,385 --> 00:10:42,985
另一个是把觉察

305
00:10:42,985 --> 00:10:44,993
对应到量子力学里的观测

306
00:10:45,346 --> 00:10:47,432
今天这个永恒复返的命题

307
00:10:47,546 --> 00:10:50,033
恰好能把这两个类比串起来

308
00:10:50,426 --> 00:10:52,993
庞加莱回归讲的那个初始状态

309
00:10:53,105 --> 00:10:55,952
那个让整个宇宙不断回归的设定

310
00:10:56,025 --> 00:10:58,952
你可以把它理解成宇宙的底层代码

311
00:10:59,385 --> 00:11:00,052
这套代码

312
00:11:00,306 --> 00:11:01,232
你改不了

313
00:11:01,625 --> 00:11:03,232
你改不了物理定律

314
00:11:03,346 --> 00:11:05,072
改不了你出生的时代

315
00:11:05,225 --> 00:11:07,232
改不了已经发生的过去

316
00:11:07,706 --> 00:11:08,952
从这个角度看

317
00:11:09,105 --> 00:11:12,345
人确实像是被一段早就写好的程序

318
00:11:12,346 --> 00:11:13,472
推着往前走

319
00:11:13,666 --> 00:11:14,493
自动驾驶

320
00:11:14,745 --> 00:11:16,072
一帧接一帧

321
00:11:16,426 --> 00:11:16,812
但是

322
00:11:17,186 --> 00:11:18,225
你能改的

323
00:11:18,225 --> 00:11:20,312
是你自己这个模型的参数

324
00:11:20,625 --> 00:11:22,972
每一次你真正觉察到自己

325
00:11:23,466 --> 00:11:25,832
觉察到一个念头正在升起

326
00:11:25,985 --> 00:11:28,552
觉察到一股情绪正在接管你

327
00:11:28,666 --> 00:11:31,332
觉察到你又一次掉进了那个熟悉的

328
00:11:31,586 --> 00:11:35,633
自动重播的反应里 - 在那个觉察发生的瞬间

329
00:11:35,785 --> 00:11:39,633
你就不再是单纯被剧本推着走的演员了

330
00:11:39,905 --> 00:11:42,192
你成了那个在观察自己的人

331
00:11:42,505 --> 00:11:44,504
而观察这个动作本身

332
00:11:44,505 --> 00:11:46,712
就在悄悄改写你的参数

333
00:11:47,025 --> 00:11:48,513
这就是为什么我说

334
00:11:48,706 --> 00:11:51,552
觉察很像量子力学里的观测

335
00:11:52,066 --> 00:11:53,552
在你不觉察的时候

336
00:11:53,586 --> 00:11:56,312
你的反应模式像叠加态一样

337
00:11:56,385 --> 00:11:58,753
按着默认的概率自动运行

338
00:11:59,025 --> 00:12:00,865
你被人说一句难听的话

339
00:12:00,865 --> 00:12:02,664
怒火就自动升起来

340
00:12:02,666 --> 00:12:03,413
分毫不差

341
00:12:03,745 --> 00:12:05,232
跟昨天一模一样

342
00:12:05,265 --> 00:12:08,513
跟一万次重演里的每一次都一模一样

343
00:12:08,946 --> 00:12:11,432
可是当你开始观察这股怒火

344
00:12:11,505 --> 00:12:12,673
你这一观察

345
00:12:12,706 --> 00:12:14,352
就介入了它的坍缩

346
00:12:14,546 --> 00:12:15,692
它往哪个方向去

347
00:12:16,025 --> 00:12:17,592
开始变得不一样了

348
00:12:18,066 --> 00:12:20,384
所以永恒复返这个念头

349
00:12:20,385 --> 00:12:21,633
最深的那一层

350
00:12:21,666 --> 00:12:24,712
根本不是在吓唬你说未来有无数次

351
00:12:24,985 --> 00:12:29,192
它是在提醒你：既然你能经历的只有此刻这一次

352
00:12:29,385 --> 00:12:33,432
既然连记忆都不会跨过那道回归的门 - 那这一帧

353
00:12:33,505 --> 00:12:36,432
你是浑浑噩噩地让它自动播完

354
00:12:36,466 --> 00:12:38,092
还是清清醒醒地

355
00:12:38,385 --> 00:12:39,692
亲手把它过一遍

356
00:12:40,306 --> 00:12:42,113
你改不了宇宙的剧本

357
00:12:42,426 --> 00:12:44,913
但你可以在自动重演的剧本里

358
00:12:44,946 --> 00:12:47,432
手动微调你自己的这一帧

359
00:12:47,706 --> 00:12:49,024
这一帧调正了

360
00:12:49,025 --> 00:12:51,345
哪怕你之后又掉回自动驾驶

361
00:12:51,346 --> 00:12:53,225
你这个模型驶向的方向

362
00:12:53,225 --> 00:12:54,753
已经悄悄不同了

363
00:12:54,985 --> 00:12:58,192
那个深夜的恶魔问你愿不愿意再过一次

364
00:12:58,625 --> 00:12:59,952
其实他问错了

365
00:13:00,225 --> 00:13:02,232
你不用回答未来的无数次

366
00:13:02,666 --> 00:13:05,712
你只需要回答此刻这一次 - 你

367
00:13:05,865 --> 00:13:06,413
醒着吗

368
00:13:07,025 --> 00:13:07,692
我是王利杰

369
00:13:07,985 --> 00:13:08,552
我们下期见