1 00:00:00,345 --> 00:00:03,153 巴菲特说投资最重要的不是智商 2 00:00:03,665 --> 00:00:05,214 你猜他说最重要的是什么 3 00:00:05,865 --> 00:00:06,774 不是信息 4 00:00:07,184 --> 00:00:07,974 不是人脉 5 00:00:08,304 --> 00:00:09,513 也不是经验 6 00:00:09,897 --> 00:00:10,945 他的原话是 7 00:00:11,016 --> 00:00:15,105 投资并非智商一百六的人战胜智商一百三的人的游戏 8 00:00:15,256 --> 00:00:16,645 一旦具备了基本智力 9 00:00:16,897 --> 00:00:18,255 你真正需要的 10 00:00:18,256 --> 00:00:20,186 是能克制冲动的性格 11 00:00:20,737 --> 00:00:23,465 我觉得 性格 这个词译得太轻了 12 00:00:23,816 --> 00:00:24,735 琢磨多年 13 00:00:24,737 --> 00:00:27,526 我认为更准确的说法是 意识品质 14 00:00:28,286 --> 00:00:28,635 哈喽 15 00:00:29,006 --> 00:00:29,434 大家好 16 00:00:29,806 --> 00:00:30,934 我是王利杰 17 00:00:31,166 --> 00:00:33,315 今天想聊一个困扰我多年的问题 18 00:00:33,925 --> 00:00:36,455 为什么掌握同样信息的两个投资人 19 00:00:36,486 --> 00:00:38,514 长期回报竟能相差一百倍 20 00:00:39,581 --> 00:00:41,471 我做天使投资十几年 21 00:00:41,581 --> 00:00:43,511 投了三百多个早期项目 22 00:00:43,822 --> 00:00:44,490 事后复盘 23 00:00:44,862 --> 00:00:46,691 最让我如鲠在喉的发现是 24 00:00:47,062 --> 00:00:49,070 那些最好和最差的决策 25 00:00:49,222 --> 00:00:51,310 信息质量几乎毫无差别 26 00:00:51,621 --> 00:00:52,611 行业分析做了 27 00:00:52,862 --> 00:00:53,861 尽调做了 28 00:00:53,862 --> 00:00:55,270 创始人深聊过 29 00:00:55,301 --> 00:00:56,691 竞争格局也看透了 30 00:00:56,901 --> 00:00:58,751 结果却天差地别 31 00:00:59,809 --> 00:01:02,257 有一笔投资至今记忆犹新 32 00:01:02,489 --> 00:01:03,678 那是个机器人项目 33 00:01:03,968 --> 00:01:05,407 创始人技术过硬 34 00:01:05,409 --> 00:01:06,198 团队扎实 35 00:01:06,489 --> 00:01:07,698 时机也成熟 36 00:01:07,928 --> 00:01:09,618 可那天我状态糟糕 37 00:01:09,728 --> 00:01:12,327 前一天刚收到另一个项目的坏消息 38 00:01:12,329 --> 00:01:13,377 情绪低落 39 00:01:13,609 --> 00:01:16,077 见面时脑子里一直有个声音劝我 40 00:01:16,409 --> 00:01:17,287 别冒险了 41 00:01:17,288 --> 00:01:18,418 最近运气差 42 00:01:18,689 --> 00:01:19,398 犹豫两周 43 00:01:19,648 --> 00:01:21,248 等我想通再去找人 44 00:01:21,249 --> 00:01:22,498 额度早没了 45 00:01:22,648 --> 00:01:22,998 后来 46 00:01:23,208 --> 00:01:24,978 那个项目成了独角兽 47 00:01:25,571 --> 00:01:26,080 反过来 48 00:01:26,412 --> 00:01:28,261 一笔亏得很惨的投资 49 00:01:28,291 --> 00:01:30,740 恰是在我特别兴奋时做的 50 00:01:31,172 --> 00:01:32,720 当时连中几个好项目 51 00:01:32,972 --> 00:01:34,371 自认手感火热 52 00:01:34,371 --> 00:01:35,901 看什么都像机会 53 00:01:36,132 --> 00:01:38,490 有个项目商业模式漏洞明显 54 00:01:38,491 --> 00:01:42,261 可赢家心态让我自动屏蔽了所有预警信号 55 00:01:42,571 --> 00:01:44,770 这两笔投资信息质量相当 56 00:01:44,772 --> 00:01:46,940 我的意识状态却截然不同 57 00:01:47,132 --> 00:01:48,240 这让我开始怀疑 58 00:01:48,491 --> 00:01:51,580 也许投资的终极变量根本不是信息 59 00:01:51,782 --> 00:01:54,450 华尔街有句老话叫 信息就是金钱 60 00:01:55,062 --> 00:01:55,890 可看看今天 61 00:01:56,262 --> 00:01:57,271 打开手机 62 00:01:57,301 --> 00:02:01,941 全球任何上市公司的财报 会议纪要 研报 卫星图 63 00:02:01,941 --> 00:02:03,271 几秒就能到手 64 00:02:03,702 --> 00:02:07,110 AI几分钟就能消化人类分析师一周的阅读量 65 00:02:07,381 --> 00:02:10,390 获取信息的成本已无限趋近于零 66 00:02:10,781 --> 00:02:13,510 但投资回报差距非但没缩小 67 00:02:13,542 --> 00:02:14,990 反而持续扩大 68 00:02:15,222 --> 00:02:16,010 这说明什么 69 00:02:16,581 --> 00:02:18,311 信息不是关键变量 70 00:02:18,382 --> 00:02:20,591 至少不是唯一的关键变量 71 00:02:21,026 --> 00:02:22,615 真正拉开差距的是什么 72 00:02:23,066 --> 00:02:25,055 我花十几年总结出一个公式 73 00:02:25,466 --> 00:02:28,995 投资能力等于信息质量乘以意识品质 74 00:02:29,226 --> 00:02:31,234 在信息质量趋同的今天 75 00:02:31,306 --> 00:02:34,194 真正的乘数效应来自意识品质 76 00:02:34,564 --> 00:02:35,992 什么是意识品质 77 00:02:36,604 --> 00:02:37,772 先不下定义 78 00:02:37,963 --> 00:02:40,413 讲一个你大概率经历过的场景 79 00:02:40,843 --> 00:02:41,792 买了一只股票 80 00:02:42,284 --> 00:02:43,653 买完就开始跌 81 00:02:44,044 --> 00:02:44,913 跌百分之五 82 00:02:45,123 --> 00:02:46,732 你安慰自己没事 83 00:02:46,764 --> 00:02:47,512 正常波动 84 00:02:48,044 --> 00:02:49,153 跌百分之十五 85 00:02:49,403 --> 00:02:50,533 心跳加速 86 00:02:50,643 --> 00:02:52,593 嘴上还硬撑看的是长期 87 00:02:53,204 --> 00:02:54,612 跌百分之三十 88 00:02:54,724 --> 00:02:57,292 每天睁眼闭眼都是看账户 89 00:02:57,484 --> 00:02:58,392 嘴上说不慌 90 00:02:58,764 --> 00:03:00,353 身体每个细胞都在喊 91 00:03:00,482 --> 00:03:01,207 快跑 92 00:03:01,934 --> 00:03:04,384 直到某天看到一条负面新闻 93 00:03:04,455 --> 00:03:06,224 或听说朋友清仓了 94 00:03:06,254 --> 00:03:07,284 你终于扛不住 95 00:03:07,534 --> 00:03:08,903 恐慌性抛售 96 00:03:09,175 --> 00:03:11,933 清仓那瞬间感受到的不是痛苦 97 00:03:11,934 --> 00:03:15,463 而是解脱 终于不用盯那个跳动的数字了 98 00:03:15,759 --> 00:03:16,534 通常 99 00:03:16,534 --> 00:03:19,544 那个清仓价恰好就在最低点附近 100 00:03:19,898 --> 00:03:23,267 这种故事在2008年金融危机发生过 101 00:03:23,417 --> 00:03:26,626 在2020年3月新冠暴跌时发生过 102 00:03:26,658 --> 00:03:28,827 在2022年也发生过 103 00:03:29,137 --> 00:03:31,506 2020年3月那次我印象尤深 104 00:03:31,577 --> 00:03:33,057 美股四次熔断 105 00:03:33,058 --> 00:03:34,186 全球恐慌 106 00:03:34,377 --> 00:03:36,137 身边几位资深投资人 107 00:03:36,137 --> 00:03:38,246 平时聊长期主义 价值投资 108 00:03:38,537 --> 00:03:41,107 别人恐惧我贪婪 头头是道 109 00:03:41,178 --> 00:03:43,786 真暴跌时还是忍不住清了仓 110 00:03:44,058 --> 00:03:46,337 等一个月后市场反弹再买回 111 00:03:46,338 --> 00:03:48,026 已亏了百分之二三十 112 00:03:48,498 --> 00:03:49,166 知识没用 113 00:03:49,458 --> 00:03:50,547 道理也没用 114 00:03:50,738 --> 00:03:51,846 那一刻起作用的 115 00:03:52,018 --> 00:03:53,107 是另一种东西 116 00:03:54,089 --> 00:03:54,678 现在问你 117 00:03:55,010 --> 00:03:56,759 清仓那一刻你缺什么 118 00:03:57,129 --> 00:03:57,838 缺信息吗 119 00:03:58,330 --> 00:04:00,298 你知道公司基本面没变 120 00:04:00,369 --> 00:04:03,379 知道历史上每次暴跌后市场终会恢复 121 00:04:03,570 --> 00:04:04,439 你什么都知道 122 00:04:04,649 --> 00:04:05,738 就是做不到 123 00:04:05,890 --> 00:04:07,298 你缺的不是信息 124 00:04:07,369 --> 00:04:10,939 是在巨大不确定性面前意识不崩溃的能力 125 00:04:11,050 --> 00:04:12,778 这就是巴菲特说的那个东西 126 00:04:12,890 --> 00:04:14,898 也是我说的意识品质 127 00:04:15,183 --> 00:04:16,052 这不是玄学 128 00:04:16,384 --> 00:04:18,392 神经科学有具体解释 129 00:04:18,664 --> 00:04:20,513 面对巨大财务压力时 130 00:04:20,544 --> 00:04:23,753 大脑杏仁核会将信号视为生存威胁 131 00:04:23,864 --> 00:04:27,753 绕过负责理性分析和长期规划的前额叶皮层 132 00:04:27,904 --> 00:04:31,433 直接向全身发出 战斗或逃跑 的化学指令 133 00:04:31,623 --> 00:04:32,613 皮质醇飙升 134 00:04:32,904 --> 00:04:34,073 心跳加速 135 00:04:34,183 --> 00:04:36,113 认知带宽急剧收窄 136 00:04:36,383 --> 00:04:37,513 那种状态下 137 00:04:37,544 --> 00:04:41,352 大脑字面意义上丧失了复杂概率判断能力 138 00:04:41,664 --> 00:04:42,412 理性下线 139 00:04:42,703 --> 00:04:43,753 本能接管 140 00:04:44,700 --> 00:04:46,028 这不是意志力弱 141 00:04:46,179 --> 00:04:49,749 是你的硬件按一百万年前的出厂设置运行 142 00:04:50,220 --> 00:04:53,818 那套设置是为了在草原躲避猛兽优化的 143 00:04:53,819 --> 00:04:57,388 不是为了在股市暴跌时做最优决策优化的 144 00:04:57,660 --> 00:04:58,369 换句话说 145 00:04:58,739 --> 00:05:00,508 恐慌性清仓那一刻 146 00:05:00,540 --> 00:05:02,028 做决定的不是你 147 00:05:02,059 --> 00:05:04,828 是你体内那个一百万年前的原始人 148 00:05:05,059 --> 00:05:05,888 他不懂股票 149 00:05:06,140 --> 00:05:07,148 不懂估值 150 00:05:07,179 --> 00:05:08,729 只知道危险信号来了 151 00:05:08,900 --> 00:05:09,789 赶紧跑 152 00:05:11,029 --> 00:05:13,389 那些能在暴跌中保持冷静的人 153 00:05:13,389 --> 00:05:15,199 并非天生意志力强 154 00:05:15,269 --> 00:05:17,358 而是神经系统受过训练 155 00:05:17,829 --> 00:05:20,598 哈佛和麻省总医院的研究团队发现 156 00:05:20,670 --> 00:05:23,838 长期冥想者的前额叶皮层明显更厚 157 00:05:23,990 --> 00:05:27,158 前额叶和杏仁核之间的功能连接更强 158 00:05:27,589 --> 00:05:29,439 这意味着压力来袭时 159 00:05:29,470 --> 00:05:31,879 理性系统不会被完全劫持 160 00:05:32,269 --> 00:05:33,259 恐惧依然在 161 00:05:33,589 --> 00:05:35,678 却不再拥有独裁权力 162 00:05:36,069 --> 00:05:38,149 你能在恐惧存在的同时 163 00:05:38,149 --> 00:05:39,959 依然调动分析能力 164 00:05:40,287 --> 00:05:40,916 怎么训练 165 00:05:41,447 --> 00:05:42,936 答案可能让你意外 166 00:05:43,486 --> 00:05:45,936 桥水基金创始人雷 达利欧 167 00:05:46,126 --> 00:05:48,455 管理过全球最大的对冲基金 168 00:05:48,806 --> 00:05:51,936 他从1968年开始练习超觉冥想 169 00:05:52,046 --> 00:05:53,616 坚持近六十年 170 00:05:53,887 --> 00:05:57,215 他说冥想是一生中做过最重要的事 171 00:05:57,287 --> 00:05:58,296 没有之一 172 00:05:58,606 --> 00:06:00,176 他在 原则 里写道 173 00:06:00,327 --> 00:06:02,215 冥想给了他一种能力 174 00:06:02,327 --> 00:06:06,376 让他能站在更高视角观察自己的情绪和想法 175 00:06:06,486 --> 00:06:07,976 而非被其淹没 176 00:06:08,407 --> 00:06:09,976 想想这意味着什么 177 00:06:10,126 --> 00:06:12,496 一个曾掌管上千亿美元的人 178 00:06:12,527 --> 00:06:16,496 面对的压力和不确定性是普通人的成千上万倍 179 00:06:17,207 --> 00:06:19,926 他说应对这一切最重要的工具 180 00:06:19,926 --> 00:06:21,736 不是更好的交易模型 181 00:06:21,806 --> 00:06:22,955 不是更快的数据 182 00:06:23,366 --> 00:06:24,455 而是冥想 183 00:06:25,095 --> 00:06:27,984 乔布斯年轻时修习曹洞宗禅法 184 00:06:28,176 --> 00:06:32,345 他的禅修老师乙川弘文是从日本赴美的一位禅师 185 00:06:32,655 --> 00:06:35,025 乔布斯甚至认真考虑过出家 186 00:06:35,136 --> 00:06:37,455 但乙川弘文劝他留在世俗 187 00:06:37,455 --> 00:06:38,944 在创造中修行 188 00:06:39,215 --> 00:06:41,104 乔布斯后来的产品哲学 189 00:06:41,136 --> 00:06:44,064 那种减到极致只剩本质的追求 190 00:06:44,136 --> 00:06:45,984 与禅宗心法同构 191 00:06:46,215 --> 00:06:50,345 他做产品决策时穿透噪音直达本质的直觉力 192 00:06:50,376 --> 00:06:51,575 不是拍脑袋 193 00:06:51,576 --> 00:06:52,905 是训练出来的 194 00:06:53,541 --> 00:06:55,070 芒格的方法更有意思 195 00:06:55,301 --> 00:06:57,890 他把投资哲学称为 坐等投资法 196 00:06:58,301 --> 00:06:59,551 就是坐在那里等 197 00:06:59,781 --> 00:07:01,471 大部分时间什么都不做 198 00:07:01,582 --> 00:07:03,351 直到绝佳机会出现 199 00:07:03,541 --> 00:07:06,091 这像不像禅宗说的 静坐观心 200 00:07:06,661 --> 00:07:08,390 大部分时间无所作为 201 00:07:08,421 --> 00:07:10,630 对管理几千亿美元的人来说 202 00:07:10,741 --> 00:07:11,930 需要的不是懒惰 203 00:07:12,181 --> 00:07:13,750 而是极强的定力 204 00:07:13,981 --> 00:07:16,651 你能不能在所有人行动时按兵不动 205 00:07:17,101 --> 00:07:19,430 能不能在看似无所作为时 206 00:07:19,502 --> 00:07:21,930 承受住可能错过机会的焦虑 207 00:07:23,081 --> 00:07:26,350 这种能力在佛学里有个精确术语叫 三摩地 208 00:07:26,681 --> 00:07:27,611 即定力 209 00:07:27,842 --> 00:07:28,871 不是心的空白 210 00:07:29,241 --> 00:07:30,491 不是没有想法 211 00:07:30,522 --> 00:07:32,611 而是心不被外境带走 212 00:07:32,761 --> 00:07:33,390 风在吹 213 00:07:33,761 --> 00:07:34,770 旗帜在动 214 00:07:34,802 --> 00:07:36,730 但注意力不跟着旗帜跑 215 00:07:36,881 --> 00:07:37,230 你看 216 00:07:37,602 --> 00:07:39,171 巴菲特说的性格 217 00:07:39,201 --> 00:07:40,311 达利欧练的冥想 218 00:07:40,602 --> 00:07:41,970 乔布斯修的禅 219 00:07:42,081 --> 00:07:43,691 芒格用的坐等法 220 00:07:43,842 --> 00:07:46,080 四人走了四条完全不同的路 221 00:07:46,081 --> 00:07:47,431 最后指向同一个东西 222 00:07:47,922 --> 00:07:51,530 训练意识在不确定性中保持稳定的能力 223 00:07:52,611 --> 00:07:54,740 我自己的体会也是如此 224 00:07:54,851 --> 00:07:56,580 投天使项目头几年 225 00:07:56,611 --> 00:07:58,399 复盘发现一个清晰规律 226 00:07:58,851 --> 00:08:03,099 最好的决策往往在我状态最清醒 最从容时做出 227 00:08:03,250 --> 00:08:04,890 不是信息最充分时 228 00:08:04,890 --> 00:08:06,779 而是内心最安定时 229 00:08:07,010 --> 00:08:10,380 那种时候我能听完创始人讲述整个故事 230 00:08:10,411 --> 00:08:11,490 不急着判断 231 00:08:11,491 --> 00:08:12,719 不急着表现专业 232 00:08:12,971 --> 00:08:14,299 只是安静地听 233 00:08:14,330 --> 00:08:17,099 让信息在脑中自行组织成形 234 00:08:17,210 --> 00:08:19,130 那种状态下做出的投资 235 00:08:19,130 --> 00:08:21,020 命中率远高于平均 236 00:08:21,890 --> 00:08:24,719 而最差的决策几乎都有共同特征 237 00:08:25,210 --> 00:08:26,859 要么被焦虑驱动 238 00:08:26,890 --> 00:08:28,770 觉得别人都在投这个赛道 239 00:08:28,770 --> 00:08:30,159 再不出手就来不及了 240 00:08:30,611 --> 00:08:32,339 要么被兴奋驱动 241 00:08:32,371 --> 00:08:34,130 某个项目数据太漂亮 242 00:08:34,130 --> 00:08:34,959 多巴胺上头 243 00:08:35,371 --> 00:08:37,060 恨不得当场签合同 244 00:08:37,411 --> 00:08:39,819 焦虑和兴奋看似完全不同 245 00:08:39,890 --> 00:08:41,000 却有一个共同点 246 00:08:41,410 --> 00:08:43,740 都让前额叶皮层下线了 247 00:08:43,972 --> 00:08:47,062 后来我开始每天花二十分钟做正念练习 248 00:08:47,253 --> 00:08:48,371 不是为了成佛 249 00:08:48,373 --> 00:08:49,762 只是为了训练一种能力 250 00:08:50,212 --> 00:08:53,532 在情绪升起时能看到它 标记它 251 00:08:53,533 --> 00:08:54,981 而非被它牵着走 252 00:08:55,332 --> 00:08:57,662 大概半年后我注意到一个变化 253 00:08:58,052 --> 00:08:59,121 不是变聪明了 254 00:08:59,253 --> 00:09:00,892 也不是能预测市场了 255 00:09:00,893 --> 00:09:03,861 而是做决策时那个空间变大了 256 00:09:04,373 --> 00:09:06,981 在刺激和反应之间多了一个停顿 257 00:09:07,509 --> 00:09:08,678 举个具体例子 258 00:09:08,950 --> 00:09:12,038 有一次我持仓的一只股票盘后突然大跌 259 00:09:12,109 --> 00:09:13,479 财报不及预期 260 00:09:13,710 --> 00:09:15,059 第一反应还是老样子 261 00:09:15,389 --> 00:09:16,428 心跳加速 262 00:09:16,430 --> 00:09:17,518 手心出汗 263 00:09:17,590 --> 00:09:20,479 脑中闪过画面 明天开盘赶紧卖 264 00:09:20,790 --> 00:09:22,268 但跟以前不同的是 265 00:09:22,269 --> 00:09:24,518 我能看到这个反应正在发生 266 00:09:24,749 --> 00:09:25,418 我跟自己说 267 00:09:25,790 --> 00:09:26,518 等一下 268 00:09:26,590 --> 00:09:28,158 这是杏仁核在说话 269 00:09:28,190 --> 00:09:29,839 不是前额叶在说话 270 00:09:30,070 --> 00:09:31,178 然后关掉手机 271 00:09:31,430 --> 00:09:32,278 洗了个澡 272 00:09:32,470 --> 00:09:34,359 第二天早上重看数据 273 00:09:34,430 --> 00:09:37,199 发现财报里虽有一个数字低于预期 274 00:09:37,269 --> 00:09:39,559 核心业务增长趋势却没变 275 00:09:39,749 --> 00:09:40,559 我没卖 276 00:09:40,710 --> 00:09:43,239 两个月后那只股票创了新高 277 00:09:44,340 --> 00:09:46,468 那个停顿可能只有零点几秒 278 00:09:46,620 --> 00:09:48,379 但就在那零点几秒里 279 00:09:48,380 --> 00:09:49,688 你可以多问自己一句 280 00:09:50,140 --> 00:09:51,539 我现在做这个决定 281 00:09:51,539 --> 00:09:53,649 是基于分析还是基于情绪 282 00:09:54,260 --> 00:09:55,208 有句话说得好 283 00:09:55,580 --> 00:09:58,149 在刺激与反应之间有一个空间 284 00:09:58,340 --> 00:10:01,548 那个空间里藏着我们选择回应方式的自由 285 00:10:01,860 --> 00:10:03,948 这句话被广泛引用多年 286 00:10:03,980 --> 00:10:05,308 出处已不可考 287 00:10:05,460 --> 00:10:07,979 但那个空间并非天生就在那里 288 00:10:07,980 --> 00:10:09,468 而是训练出来的 289 00:10:09,580 --> 00:10:10,739 冥想做的事 290 00:10:10,740 --> 00:10:13,588 本质上就是把那个空间一点点撑大 291 00:10:14,460 --> 00:10:16,529 现在说一个也许更根本的问题 292 00:10:17,100 --> 00:10:19,580 为什么我说意识品质在今天 293 00:10:19,581 --> 00:10:21,850 比历史上任何时期都更重要 294 00:10:22,380 --> 00:10:24,629 因为AI正在消灭信息差 295 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:25,581 过去 296 00:10:25,581 --> 00:10:29,629 顶级投资人的护城河很大一部分来自信息不对称 297 00:10:29,901 --> 00:10:31,230 你认识更多人 298 00:10:31,301 --> 00:10:33,269 能拿到别人拿不到的数据 299 00:10:33,340 --> 00:10:34,950 有更快的信息通道 300 00:10:35,181 --> 00:10:35,769 但今天 301 00:10:36,140 --> 00:10:38,980 一个大学生用AI工具一小时 302 00:10:38,980 --> 00:10:40,100 就能生成一份 303 00:10:40,100 --> 00:10:42,590 质量不亚于专业分析师的研报 304 00:10:42,821 --> 00:10:44,670 信息壁垒正在坍塌 305 00:10:45,461 --> 00:10:48,031 当所有人都能拿到差不多的信息时 306 00:10:48,142 --> 00:10:49,770 竞争维度就发生了转移 307 00:10:50,182 --> 00:10:52,591 从信息获取转向信息处理 308 00:10:52,741 --> 00:10:54,941 而信息处理的瓶颈不在算力 309 00:10:54,942 --> 00:10:56,230 那是AI的强项 310 00:10:56,422 --> 00:10:57,130 瓶颈在于 311 00:10:57,461 --> 00:10:59,990 当信息告诉你一件不想听的事时 312 00:11:00,022 --> 00:11:01,331 你能不能真听进去 313 00:11:01,782 --> 00:11:04,541 当数据显示该卖掉你最爱的股票时 314 00:11:04,542 --> 00:11:07,250 你能不被沉没成本和禀赋效应绑架 315 00:11:07,902 --> 00:11:10,110 当市场给出反直觉信号时 316 00:11:10,142 --> 00:11:12,331 你能不让确认偏误将其过滤 317 00:11:13,005 --> 00:11:14,975 这些能力AI帮不了你 318 00:11:15,046 --> 00:11:17,414 因为最终按下买卖按钮的是你 319 00:11:17,485 --> 00:11:19,175 决定仓位大小的是你 320 00:11:19,245 --> 00:11:23,134 凌晨三点辗转反侧想着要不要止损的也是你 321 00:11:23,485 --> 00:11:25,085 AI可以给你完美分析 322 00:11:25,086 --> 00:11:27,175 却不能替你承受不确定性 323 00:11:27,566 --> 00:11:31,855 而投资本质上就是在不确定性中做决策的游戏 324 00:11:32,286 --> 00:11:33,524 你的意识品质 325 00:11:33,526 --> 00:11:36,935 决定了你能承受多大不确定性而不崩溃 326 00:11:37,406 --> 00:11:40,095 这就是AI无法替代的终极壁垒 327 00:11:40,462 --> 00:11:43,031 我不是说每个人都该打坐或学禅 328 00:11:43,421 --> 00:11:46,351 冥想只是训练意识品质的方法之一 329 00:11:46,661 --> 00:11:49,111 有人通过长跑获得类似效果 330 00:11:49,222 --> 00:11:50,991 有人通过写日记复盘 331 00:11:51,222 --> 00:11:53,911 有人通过与心理咨询师定期对话 332 00:11:54,141 --> 00:11:56,070 关键不在于具体方法 333 00:11:56,102 --> 00:11:58,700 而在于你是否在有意识地训练 334 00:11:58,702 --> 00:12:02,590 那种在刺激和反应之间创造空间的能力 335 00:12:02,858 --> 00:12:04,387 这里想特别说一点 336 00:12:04,539 --> 00:12:06,127 很多人听到这儿可能会想 337 00:12:06,498 --> 00:12:07,338 道理都懂 338 00:12:07,339 --> 00:12:08,348 就是做不到 339 00:12:08,579 --> 00:12:09,088 请注意 340 00:12:09,459 --> 00:12:11,348 做不到 本身不是问题 341 00:12:11,579 --> 00:12:14,348 知道自己做不到才是改变的起点 342 00:12:14,579 --> 00:12:17,547 怕就怕根本没意识到自己做不到 343 00:12:17,898 --> 00:12:19,627 你以为在做理性决策 344 00:12:19,699 --> 00:12:22,308 其实杏仁核已经替你做了 345 00:12:22,419 --> 00:12:24,787 觉察到自己正被情绪劫持 346 00:12:24,819 --> 00:12:27,387 这本身就是意识品质的第一步 347 00:12:27,539 --> 00:12:30,188 你不需要马上变成心如止水的人 348 00:12:30,299 --> 00:12:34,058 只需在下一次做投资决定前多停三秒 349 00:12:34,059 --> 00:12:34,848 问自己一句 350 00:12:35,299 --> 00:12:37,368 此刻推动我按下按钮的 351 00:12:37,579 --> 00:12:38,407 到底是什么 352 00:12:39,339 --> 00:12:43,738 如果你每天花大量时间研究K线 财报 宏观数据 353 00:12:43,738 --> 00:12:48,068 却从未花哪怕十分钟觉察自己的内在反应模式 354 00:12:48,179 --> 00:12:49,818 那你在投资上的努力 355 00:12:49,819 --> 00:12:51,988 就像一个人拼命升级软件 356 00:12:52,059 --> 00:12:54,308 却从不检查硬件是否过热 357 00:12:54,539 --> 00:12:55,427 总有一天 358 00:12:55,459 --> 00:12:58,027 硬件会在最关键的时刻死机 359 00:12:58,966 --> 00:13:00,475 这里有个很有意思的悖论 360 00:13:01,086 --> 00:13:03,455 越试图用意志力压制情绪 361 00:13:03,645 --> 00:13:05,414 情绪反弹越猛烈 362 00:13:05,605 --> 00:13:06,715 告诉自己不要慌 363 00:13:07,086 --> 00:13:08,534 结果越来越慌 364 00:13:08,806 --> 00:13:11,174 因为压制本身就是对抗 365 00:13:11,326 --> 00:13:13,335 对抗会消耗认知资源 366 00:13:13,365 --> 00:13:14,855 让你更快崩溃 367 00:13:15,125 --> 00:13:16,754 真正有效的不是压制 368 00:13:17,046 --> 00:13:17,975 是觉察 369 00:13:18,206 --> 00:13:20,134 你不需要让恐惧消失 370 00:13:20,285 --> 00:13:22,335 只需看到恐惧在那里 371 00:13:22,405 --> 00:13:24,495 然后选择不跟着它走 372 00:13:24,885 --> 00:13:27,014 这两件事听起来差不多 373 00:13:27,125 --> 00:13:29,095 做起来完全是两回事 374 00:13:29,285 --> 00:13:30,975 一个是跟情绪打架 375 00:13:31,086 --> 00:13:33,575 一个是站在旁边看它来去 376 00:13:34,006 --> 00:13:35,734 最后说一个最近的观察 377 00:13:36,006 --> 00:13:39,094 我发现那些在市场里活得最久的人 378 00:13:39,126 --> 00:13:40,374 不一定最聪明 379 00:13:40,445 --> 00:13:42,815 但一定跟自己情绪关系最好 380 00:13:42,965 --> 00:13:44,234 他们不是没有恐惧 381 00:13:44,565 --> 00:13:46,055 而是恐惧来临时 382 00:13:46,085 --> 00:13:47,275 恐惧不是老板 383 00:13:47,526 --> 00:13:48,734 只是一个信号 384 00:13:48,886 --> 00:13:51,335 他们能接收信号携带的信息 385 00:13:51,365 --> 00:13:53,134 却不会被信号劫持 386 00:13:53,803 --> 00:13:56,292 巴菲特说投资不靠智商 387 00:13:56,602 --> 00:13:59,651 达利欧说冥想是成功的最重要原因 388 00:13:59,962 --> 00:14:04,491 乔布斯在禅修里找到了穿透噪音直达本质的能力 389 00:14:04,762 --> 00:14:08,332 芒格用一生践行了定力就是最大武器 390 00:14:08,923 --> 00:14:11,371 四人走了四条完全不同的路 391 00:14:11,482 --> 00:14:13,572 最后指向同一个地方 392 00:14:14,002 --> 00:14:15,562 投资的终极壁垒 393 00:14:15,563 --> 00:14:17,411 从来不是你知道什么 394 00:14:17,482 --> 00:14:21,001 而是当你知道的一切都被恐惧淹没时 395 00:14:21,002 --> 00:14:22,611 你还能不能看得见 396 00:14:23,483 --> 00:14:23,951 说到底 397 00:14:24,243 --> 00:14:26,041 世上所有投资方法论 398 00:14:26,042 --> 00:14:29,402 无论价值投资 趋势投资还是量化投资 399 00:14:29,402 --> 00:14:31,612 都假设执行者是理性的 400 00:14:31,682 --> 00:14:34,242 但如果执行者的意识品质不过关 401 00:14:34,243 --> 00:14:37,652 再好的方法论到了关键时刻也会变形 402 00:14:38,162 --> 00:14:39,492 方法论是地图 403 00:14:39,522 --> 00:14:42,492 意识品质是你拿地图的手稳不稳 404 00:14:42,802 --> 00:14:43,392 手在抖 405 00:14:43,723 --> 00:14:45,532 地图再准也没用 406 00:14:45,843 --> 00:14:47,071 而这双手稳不稳 407 00:14:47,363 --> 00:14:48,112 不是天赋 408 00:14:48,402 --> 00:14:49,291 是训练 409 00:14:50,150 --> 00:14:52,639 你觉得在自己的投资经历中 410 00:14:52,790 --> 00:14:54,659 意识品质起了多大作用 411 00:14:55,270 --> 00:14:59,139 有没有过因情绪失控做出让自己特别后悔的决策 412 00:14:59,671 --> 00:15:00,139 如果有 413 00:15:00,431 --> 00:15:01,659 后来是怎么应对的 414 00:15:02,150 --> 00:15:04,679 欢迎在评论区聊聊真实想法 415 00:15:04,870 --> 00:15:05,539 我是王利杰 416 00:15:05,790 --> 00:15:06,634 我们下期见