1
00:00:00,433 --> 00:00:02,766
你以为<寒窑赋>在劝人认命

2
00:00:02,800 --> 00:00:03,733
它在讲缘起

3
00:00:04,533 --> 00:00:07,200
你肯定听过这句话 - "时也

4
00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:07,966
命也

5
00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:08,266
运也

6
00:00:08,733 --> 00:00:09,900
"别人失败了

7
00:00:09,900 --> 00:00:12,233
安慰他 - 时也命也

8
00:00:12,900 --> 00:00:14,100
自己失败了

9
00:00:14,100 --> 00:00:16,000
自我解嘲 - 时也命也

10
00:00:16,866 --> 00:00:18,033
这短短六个字

11
00:00:18,066 --> 00:00:20,800
几乎成了中国人在挫折面前的标准回复

12
00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:22,666
这句话的出处

13
00:00:22,666 --> 00:00:24,500
是一篇叫<寒窑赋>的短文

14
00:00:25,166 --> 00:00:26,100
一千年来

15
00:00:26,133 --> 00:00:27,633
它挂在吕蒙正的名下

16
00:00:28,533 --> 00:00:30,433
北宋做过三次宰相的那个人

17
00:00:31,166 --> 00:00:33,066
但我今天想先破一个冷知识

18
00:00:33,966 --> 00:00:34,900
学界考证

19
00:00:34,933 --> 00:00:37,566
<寒窑赋>其实很可能不是吕蒙正写的

20
00:00:38,300 --> 00:00:40,466
现存最早的刻本是晚清的

21
00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:43,066
文章里甚至有一些硬伤

22
00:00:43,766 --> 00:00:46,033
比如它说"张良原是布衣"

23
00:00:46,766 --> 00:00:49,200
张良家祖上连着五代相韩

24
00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:50,833
怎么可能是布衣

25
00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:53,266
北宋那个读书破万卷的吕蒙正

26
00:00:53,266 --> 00:00:54,433
不可能犯这种错

27
00:00:56,233 --> 00:00:57,766
所以真实情况很可能是

28
00:00:58,266 --> 00:01:00,500
这是明清之间的说唱艺人

29
00:01:00,533 --> 00:01:04,133
借着吕蒙正"从寒窑到相府"的戏剧性人生

30
00:01:04,133 --> 00:01:06,333
假托他的名字写的一篇劝世文

31
00:01:07,133 --> 00:01:08,633
但 - 这里就有意思了

32
00:01:09,233 --> 00:01:11,133
为什么要假托吕蒙正

33
00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:13,033
因为吕蒙正的人生本身

34
00:01:13,066 --> 00:01:16,333
就是这篇文章想描述的那种规律最活的证据

35
00:01:17,233 --> 00:01:19,233
而一篇假托的劝世文

36
00:01:19,233 --> 00:01:21,200
凭什么能流传几百年

37
00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:23,800
能让无数人读了之后流泪

38
00:01:23,900 --> 00:01:26,333
因为它虽然不是吕蒙正亲笔

39
00:01:26,366 --> 00:01:27,966
但它捕捉到了一个真东西

40
00:01:28,666 --> 00:01:29,766
这个真东西

41
00:01:29,766 --> 00:01:31,733
不是吕蒙正个人的感悟

42
00:01:31,733 --> 00:01:34,433
是一个更大、更深、更底层的结构

43
00:01:35,366 --> 00:01:36,733
用佛学的语言说

44
00:01:36,733 --> 00:01:37,266
叫"缘起"

45
00:01:38,100 --> 00:01:39,433
今天我要拆的

46
00:01:39,433 --> 00:01:40,333
就是这件事

47
00:01:40,500 --> 00:01:41,166
哈喽

48
00:01:41,166 --> 00:01:42,033
大家好

49
00:01:42,033 --> 00:01:42,733
我是王利杰

50
00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:47,566
我想回答一个问题 - <寒窑赋>当年写下"时也

51
00:01:48,100 --> 00:01:50,766
命也、运也"这几个字的时候

52
00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:52,300
它到底在说什么

53
00:01:52,433 --> 00:01:54,233
是在劝你躺平认命吗

54
00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:55,166
还是说

55
00:01:55,166 --> 00:01:56,600
它看见的东西

56
00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:59,100
其实是佛学里讲的那套"因缘和合"

57
00:01:59,733 --> 00:02:03,466
精密到今天的现代科学还在追赶的那套东西

58
00:02:03,700 --> 00:02:06,000
先把结论放在前面 - <寒窑赋>

59
00:02:06,266 --> 00:02:08,200
不是一本让你认输的书

60
00:02:08,233 --> 00:02:10,933
它是一份让你看清"条件结构"的说明书

61
00:02:11,600 --> 00:02:12,233
认命

62
00:02:12,233 --> 00:02:13,966
是读了一半就合上书

63
00:02:14,633 --> 00:02:15,900
看见缘起

64
00:02:15,933 --> 00:02:17,766
才是这篇文章真正的钥匙

65
00:02:18,500 --> 00:02:20,933
我先讲吕蒙正这个人的真实人生

66
00:02:20,933 --> 00:02:24,166
然后你才能理解为什么这篇假托他的文章

67
00:02:24,166 --> 00:02:25,266
会被时间留下来

68
00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:27,366
吕蒙正的身世

69
00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:28,666
<宋史>里有明确记载

70
00:02:29,466 --> 00:02:31,500
他父亲吕龟图娶了妾之后

71
00:02:31,500 --> 00:02:32,866
跟原配闹翻

72
00:02:32,900 --> 00:02:35,266
把原配刘氏连带儿子一起赶出家门

73
00:02:36,100 --> 00:02:37,700
母子俩的生活极其贫困

74
00:02:38,533 --> 00:02:40,733
后世戏曲里说他"住寒窑

75
00:02:40,900 --> 00:02:44,233
讨饭吃" - 具体细节有艺术加工

76
00:02:44,233 --> 00:02:47,200
但<宋史>用了八个字给他的少年时代定性

77
00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:49,300
"蒙正颇历艰难"

78
00:02:50,433 --> 00:02:51,800
那个时候的吕蒙正

79
00:02:51,833 --> 00:02:54,066
和今天任何一个被家庭抛弃

80
00:02:54,233 --> 00:02:56,400
挣扎求生的年轻人没有本质区别

81
00:02:57,133 --> 00:02:59,300
饿、冷、屈辱、看不到未来

82
00:03:00,100 --> 00:03:01,100
但他在等什么

83
00:03:01,233 --> 00:03:02,066
他自己也不知道

84
00:03:02,900 --> 00:03:03,766
他能做的

85
00:03:03,766 --> 00:03:04,400
就是读书

86
00:03:05,133 --> 00:03:05,600
每天读

87
00:03:06,433 --> 00:03:08,066
在没有任何回报的情况下读

88
00:03:09,100 --> 00:03:10,366
三十三岁那年

89
00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:10,966
他中了状元

90
00:03:11,900 --> 00:03:13,366
太平兴国二年

91
00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:15,533
宋太宗亲自主持的那一届科举

92
00:03:16,300 --> 00:03:17,400
又过了几年

93
00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:18,000
他入中枢

94
00:03:18,833 --> 00:03:19,766
三十九岁

95
00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:20,533
第一次拜相

96
00:03:21,466 --> 00:03:23,266
一生三次入相

97
00:03:23,266 --> 00:03:24,966
合计做了将近十年的宰相

98
00:03:25,833 --> 00:03:29,033
从那个被赶出家门、贫寒交迫的少年

99
00:03:29,033 --> 00:03:31,933
到三度拜相的重臣 - 这个落差

100
00:03:31,966 --> 00:03:35,300
才是<寒窑赋>这篇文章流传千年的真正底色

101
00:03:36,100 --> 00:03:37,000
现在

102
00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:38,533
我们来看这篇文章的骨架

103
00:03:39,366 --> 00:03:40,166
它的作者

104
00:03:40,166 --> 00:03:41,300
不管是谁

105
00:03:41,333 --> 00:03:44,900
干了一件事 - 列举了几十个历史人物

106
00:03:44,933 --> 00:03:46,933
全都是"际遇翻转"的典型案例

107
00:03:47,866 --> 00:03:50,066
它说"蛟龙未遇

108
00:03:50,066 --> 00:03:52,166
潜身于鱼虾之间

109
00:03:52,166 --> 00:03:53,400
君子失时

110
00:03:53,433 --> 00:03:54,666
拱手于小人之下"

111
00:03:55,466 --> 00:03:56,966
它说孔子

112
00:03:56,966 --> 00:04:01,600
孔子厄于陈邦 - 一代圣人被围困在陈蔡之间

113
00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:02,433
七天没饭吃

114
00:04:03,366 --> 00:04:04,900
它说姜太公

115
00:04:04,900 --> 00:04:09,433
钓于渭水 - 八十岁之前是一个默默无闻的老头

116
00:04:09,433 --> 00:04:10,866
钓鱼钓到快饿死

117
00:04:10,900 --> 00:04:11,833
才遇到周文王

118
00:04:12,733 --> 00:04:13,933
它说韩信

119
00:04:13,966 --> 00:04:16,733
受辱于胯下 - 堂堂兵仙

120
00:04:16,733 --> 00:04:19,633
年轻时曾经从一个屠夫的裤裆底下钻过去

121
00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:22,166
它说冯唐易老

122
00:04:22,166 --> 00:04:22,900
李广难封

123
00:04:23,700 --> 00:04:25,900
它说诸葛亮没遇到刘备之前

124
00:04:25,900 --> 00:04:27,166
只是南阳一个种地的

125
00:04:27,866 --> 00:04:30,500
它说项羽力拔山兮气盖世

126
00:04:30,533 --> 00:04:31,933
最后乌江自刎

127
00:04:32,566 --> 00:04:35,566
它说刘邦本是一个小小的泗水亭长

128
00:04:35,566 --> 00:04:37,400
最后开创大汉四百年

129
00:04:38,366 --> 00:04:40,400
一口气几十个人物

130
00:04:40,433 --> 00:04:41,566
高潮起伏

131
00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:42,366
落差极大

132
00:04:43,066 --> 00:04:46,166
然后它下了一个结论 - "此乃时也

133
00:04:46,166 --> 00:04:47,033
命也

134
00:04:47,100 --> 00:04:47,333
运也

135
00:04:47,966 --> 00:04:49,933
"大部分人读到这里就停了

136
00:04:50,633 --> 00:04:51,533
停在这六个字上

137
00:04:52,333 --> 00:04:55,633
然后得出一个很丧的结论 - 你看

138
00:04:55,633 --> 00:04:57,400
人生不靠努力

139
00:04:57,433 --> 00:04:57,966
全靠命

140
00:04:58,633 --> 00:05:00,100
这就是最严重的误读

141
00:05:00,866 --> 00:05:02,300
因为如果你继续往下读

142
00:05:02,300 --> 00:05:04,433
文章在结尾写 - "嗟呼

143
00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:05,700
人生在世

144
00:05:05,700 --> 00:05:06,900
富贵不可捧

145
00:05:06,900 --> 00:05:07,633
贫贱不可欺

146
00:05:08,233 --> 00:05:09,733
此乃天地循环

147
00:05:09,733 --> 00:05:10,566
终而复始者也

148
00:05:11,066 --> 00:05:13,433
"翻译成白话 - 人生在世

149
00:05:13,433 --> 00:05:15,966
有钱有势的时候不要得意忘形

150
00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:18,033
贫穷卑贱的时候不要自暴自弃

151
00:05:18,766 --> 00:05:20,400
这个世界的底层规律

152
00:05:20,433 --> 00:05:23,766
就是循环 - 现在的高不会永远高

153
00:05:23,766 --> 00:05:25,533
现在的低也不会永远低

154
00:05:26,333 --> 00:05:27,533
这还是"认命"吗

155
00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:28,200
这是"识命"

156
00:05:28,933 --> 00:05:29,833
识命和认命

157
00:05:29,833 --> 00:05:30,666
是两件事

158
00:05:31,233 --> 00:05:33,600
认命是 - 我看见了规律

159
00:05:33,633 --> 00:05:34,366
所以我放弃

160
00:05:35,100 --> 00:05:37,500
识命是 - 我看见了规律

161
00:05:37,500 --> 00:05:39,000
所以我知道怎么自处

162
00:05:39,700 --> 00:05:40,833
吕蒙正自己

163
00:05:40,866 --> 00:05:41,833
就是最好的反证

164
00:05:42,633 --> 00:05:43,866
他如果真的认命

165
00:05:43,900 --> 00:05:45,400
就应该死在那个寒窑里

166
00:05:45,966 --> 00:05:46,400
但他没有

167
00:05:47,333 --> 00:05:48,666
他在寒窑里干什么

168
00:05:48,833 --> 00:05:49,100
读书

169
00:05:49,833 --> 00:05:50,900
读到夜深

170
00:05:51,100 --> 00:05:52,033
用雪光照书

171
00:05:52,666 --> 00:05:53,466
他等什么

172
00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:54,100
他不知道

173
00:05:54,700 --> 00:05:56,333
他只是在做自己该做的事

174
00:05:56,966 --> 00:05:57,966
这篇文章

175
00:05:58,000 --> 00:05:59,933
无论是不是他本人写的

176
00:05:59,933 --> 00:06:01,366
它借他的名字

177
00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:03,133
想说的从来不是认命

178
00:06:04,333 --> 00:06:07,833
它要说的是 - 时间的结构是有规律的

179
00:06:07,833 --> 00:06:08,966
识别这个规律

180
00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:11,200
你才能在低谷期不毁掉自己

181
00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:12,233
好

182
00:06:12,233 --> 00:06:14,433
现在让我们切换到佛学的视角

183
00:06:14,466 --> 00:06:16,500
看看这篇文章碰到的到底是什么

184
00:06:17,333 --> 00:06:19,400
佛学里有一个非常核心的概念

185
00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:19,866
叫"缘起"

186
00:06:20,633 --> 00:06:23,633
最简单的解释就是四个字 - 因缘和合

187
00:06:24,433 --> 00:06:25,866
任何一件事情的发生

188
00:06:25,866 --> 00:06:28,000
都不是单一原因造成的

189
00:06:28,033 --> 00:06:30,400
而是一整套条件共同成熟的结果

190
00:06:31,100 --> 00:06:32,600
种子只是"因"

191
00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:33,433
它要发芽

192
00:06:33,433 --> 00:06:36,166
还需要阳光、水分、土壤

193
00:06:36,333 --> 00:06:38,566
温度、时节 - 这叫"缘"

194
00:06:39,333 --> 00:06:40,266
因加缘

195
00:06:40,266 --> 00:06:41,033
一个都不能少

196
00:06:42,033 --> 00:06:43,833
这听起来像常识

197
00:06:43,833 --> 00:06:45,266
但佛学把它推到了极致

198
00:06:45,900 --> 00:06:48,233
没有任何一个事物是独立存在的

199
00:06:48,233 --> 00:06:50,000
它必然嵌在一张条件网里

200
00:06:50,633 --> 00:06:53,466
那张网里任何一个关键条件还没到位

201
00:06:53,500 --> 00:06:54,633
结果就不会出现

202
00:06:55,333 --> 00:06:56,666
姜太公钓鱼

203
00:06:56,666 --> 00:06:57,466
八十年

204
00:06:57,500 --> 00:06:59,700
他的才华一直在那儿 - 这是"因"

205
00:07:00,533 --> 00:07:02,533
但周文王没出生、没出门

206
00:07:02,666 --> 00:07:05,400
没路过渭水之前 - 那张网没织完

207
00:07:06,300 --> 00:07:07,266
因缘未和合

208
00:07:08,033 --> 00:07:09,633
诸葛亮在南阳种地

209
00:07:09,633 --> 00:07:11,700
他的才学一直在那儿

210
00:07:11,733 --> 00:07:12,166
因在

211
00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:15,500
但刘备没有经历过失败、还没走投无路

212
00:07:16,233 --> 00:07:19,833
还不够谦卑到三顾茅庐 - 那张网也没织完

213
00:07:20,700 --> 00:07:22,566
吕蒙正在寒窑里读书

214
00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:24,466
他的才华一直在

215
00:07:24,466 --> 00:07:24,866
因在

216
00:07:25,666 --> 00:07:26,900
但那一届科举还没到

217
00:07:27,633 --> 00:07:30,066
那个时代选拔人才的机制还没成熟

218
00:07:30,833 --> 00:07:33,033
他自己还没完成某种内在的转化

219
00:07:33,833 --> 00:07:35,133
那张网也没织完

220
00:07:36,366 --> 00:07:37,900
一旦那张网织完了

221
00:07:37,933 --> 00:07:39,133
事情就突然发生了

222
00:07:39,933 --> 00:07:41,233
不是渐进的

223
00:07:41,266 --> 00:07:41,866
是涌现的

224
00:07:42,500 --> 00:07:44,633
这就是"时也"这两个字的真正含义

225
00:07:45,433 --> 00:07:46,866
不是愚昧的宿命

226
00:07:46,900 --> 00:07:47,800
是时节因缘

227
00:07:48,700 --> 00:07:49,700
时机到了

228
00:07:49,733 --> 00:07:50,300
种子发芽

229
00:07:51,066 --> 00:07:52,133
时机没到

230
00:07:52,133 --> 00:07:53,466
种子就待在土里

231
00:07:53,500 --> 00:07:55,133
看起来什么都没发生

232
00:07:55,166 --> 00:07:56,366
但它从来没有消失

233
00:07:57,333 --> 00:07:59,166
而大多数人痛苦的根源

234
00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:00,666
不是没有种子

235
00:08:00,666 --> 00:08:02,600
而是在种子没发芽的时候

236
00:08:02,633 --> 00:08:04,533
开始怀疑这颗种子的存在

237
00:08:05,166 --> 00:08:06,766
这是一个非常关键的区分

238
00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:10,600
你有没有过这种感觉 - 你读了很多书

239
00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:11,766
你很努力

240
00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:13,166
你知道自己不差

241
00:08:13,166 --> 00:08:14,166
但就是没有回报

242
00:08:14,900 --> 00:08:16,200
时间一天天过

243
00:08:16,233 --> 00:08:18,900
你开始怀疑 - 是不是我搞错了

244
00:08:19,066 --> 00:08:21,100
是不是我根本就没有才华

245
00:08:21,266 --> 00:08:23,233
是不是这条路根本不通

246
00:08:23,366 --> 00:08:24,666
这种怀疑本身

247
00:08:24,666 --> 00:08:27,033
就是种子还没发芽时最常见的事故

248
00:08:27,833 --> 00:08:29,466
吕蒙正在寒窑里

249
00:08:29,500 --> 00:08:31,400
一定经历过无数次这样的怀疑

250
00:08:32,633 --> 00:08:34,866
这篇借他名字写的<寒窑赋>

251
00:08:34,866 --> 00:08:36,166
之所以能打动人

252
00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:38,166
不是因为它讲了什么大道理

253
00:08:38,166 --> 00:08:42,100
是因为它写进去了"等待的折磨" - "人道我贵

254
00:08:42,133 --> 00:08:43,466
非我之能也

255
00:08:43,466 --> 00:08:45,666
此乃时也、运也、命也

256
00:08:46,233 --> 00:08:46,966
"它说

257
00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:48,266
后来我当了大官

258
00:08:48,300 --> 00:08:49,400
别人说我有本事

259
00:08:50,133 --> 00:08:51,466
不是我有本事

260
00:08:51,500 --> 00:08:52,700
是时机终于到了

261
00:08:53,433 --> 00:08:54,233
这不是谦虚

262
00:08:54,766 --> 00:08:56,500
这是识破规律之后的清醒

263
00:08:57,366 --> 00:08:58,066
好

264
00:08:58,100 --> 00:08:59,033
讲到这里

265
00:08:59,033 --> 00:09:00,666
我要做一次跨文明的对照

266
00:09:01,500 --> 00:09:04,266
我们之前专门讲过<了凡四训>

267
00:09:04,266 --> 00:09:07,566
那一期讲的是 - 命是可以被主动修改的

268
00:09:08,366 --> 00:09:10,666
袁了凡用几十年的功过格

269
00:09:10,866 --> 00:09:14,700
把自己的概率云从一根尖针揉散成一朵云

270
00:09:14,700 --> 00:09:15,400
重新塑形

271
00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:18,200
但<了凡四训>有一个前提

272
00:09:18,233 --> 00:09:19,866
它没有展开 - 时间

273
00:09:20,700 --> 00:09:22,666
你今天种下一颗善的种子

274
00:09:22,666 --> 00:09:24,666
它不会明天就给你一个好结果

275
00:09:25,366 --> 00:09:28,500
它可能要等十年、二十年、甚至一辈子

276
00:09:29,333 --> 00:09:32,066
你注入新参数给阿赖耶识

277
00:09:32,100 --> 00:09:34,800
这个系统的"推理输出"也不会立刻改变

278
00:09:35,766 --> 00:09:38,433
它要等足够多的新种子积累起来

279
00:09:38,433 --> 00:09:40,600
要等旧种子的势能被稀释

280
00:09:40,866 --> 00:09:42,600
要等某个触发的因缘出现

281
00:09:43,133 --> 00:09:45,666
<了凡四训>讲"种什么因、得什么果"

282
00:09:46,333 --> 00:09:49,866
但<寒窑赋>讲的是 - "果"要多久才来

283
00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:51,533
这两篇文章合起来读

284
00:09:51,533 --> 00:09:52,866
才是完整的一张地图

285
00:09:53,633 --> 00:09:54,900
了凡教你改写参数

286
00:09:55,633 --> 00:09:59,700
寒窑教你在参数改写之后、结果还没涌现之前

287
00:09:59,733 --> 00:10:00,466
如何不发疯

288
00:10:01,133 --> 00:10:04,466
合在一起你才明白 - 修行不是只修"种"

289
00:10:04,500 --> 00:10:05,200
更要修"等"

290
00:10:05,900 --> 00:10:07,200
再切换一个视角

291
00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:08,700
我们看塔勒布的<反脆弱>

292
00:10:09,333 --> 00:10:10,733
塔勒布有一个核心观察

293
00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:13,066
这个世界的回报是非线性的

294
00:10:13,666 --> 00:10:15,500
你大部分时间在做"无用功"

295
00:10:16,033 --> 00:10:18,300
积累、准备、沉淀

296
00:10:18,333 --> 00:10:19,433
看起来毫无进展

297
00:10:19,966 --> 00:10:20,866
但某一天

298
00:10:20,866 --> 00:10:23,333
一个小小的触发事件发生了

299
00:10:23,366 --> 00:10:26,566
你之前所有的积累突然同时激活

300
00:10:26,566 --> 00:10:28,333
产生一个数量级的跳跃

301
00:10:28,433 --> 00:10:30,333
塔勒布把这种现象叫"凸性"

302
00:10:31,033 --> 00:10:33,566
你大部分时间的回报几乎是零

303
00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:34,833
但一旦触发

304
00:10:34,833 --> 00:10:36,300
回报会以数量级爆发

305
00:10:37,033 --> 00:10:38,366
这和"时也运也"

306
00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:39,600
几乎是同一个观察

307
00:10:40,733 --> 00:10:42,733
吕蒙正在寒窑里读书

308
00:10:42,733 --> 00:10:43,633
没有任何回报

309
00:10:44,500 --> 00:10:45,500
周围的人嘲笑他

310
00:10:46,233 --> 00:10:48,333
这是典型的"看不到回报的积累期"

311
00:10:49,233 --> 00:10:51,266
但这个积累期的真正作用

312
00:10:51,266 --> 00:10:53,266
不是产生当下的回报

313
00:10:53,300 --> 00:10:55,233
是往未来的概率云里埋种子

314
00:10:56,433 --> 00:10:58,633
当时机点来临 - 那一届科举

315
00:10:59,133 --> 00:11:01,366
所有埋下的种子同时激活

316
00:11:01,366 --> 00:11:02,033
一次跳跃

317
00:11:02,733 --> 00:11:04,733
塔勒布用概率论解释这件事

318
00:11:05,533 --> 00:11:08,466
<寒窑赋>用"时也命也"解释这件事

319
00:11:09,500 --> 00:11:11,733
佛学用"因缘和合"解释这件事

320
00:11:12,466 --> 00:11:13,966
三个人说的是同一件事

321
00:11:14,633 --> 00:11:16,166
我们再看唯识学的视角

322
00:11:16,833 --> 00:11:18,666
唯识学有一个核心模型

323
00:11:18,700 --> 00:11:20,600
叫"种子—现行—熏习"

324
00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:24,133
你过去的每一个念头、每一个行为

325
00:11:24,133 --> 00:11:26,033
都在阿赖耶识里种下一颗种子

326
00:11:26,866 --> 00:11:28,933
这颗种子不会凭空消失

327
00:11:28,933 --> 00:11:30,333
它在仓库里静静地等

328
00:11:30,866 --> 00:11:31,766
等什么

329
00:11:31,933 --> 00:11:33,366
等现行的因缘成熟

330
00:11:34,100 --> 00:11:36,366
关键是 - 同一颗种子

331
00:11:36,366 --> 00:11:38,200
在不同的因缘条件下

332
00:11:38,233 --> 00:11:42,133
可以延迟几年、几十年、甚至几生几世才发芽

333
00:11:42,966 --> 00:11:45,000
而<寒窑赋>看见的正是这一点

334
00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:48,333
有些人的种子很快就发芽了

335
00:11:48,366 --> 00:11:50,200
有些人的种子要等很久

336
00:11:51,333 --> 00:11:52,866
这不是种子的问题

337
00:11:52,866 --> 00:11:53,700
是因缘的问题

338
00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:56,500
它写文章不是告诉你认命

339
00:11:56,533 --> 00:11:58,433
是告诉你 - 种子有没有

340
00:11:58,500 --> 00:11:59,400
自己心里清楚

341
00:12:00,100 --> 00:12:01,200
时候到了没有

342
00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:02,166
不是你能控制的

343
00:12:02,833 --> 00:12:03,933
你能控制的

344
00:12:03,966 --> 00:12:06,300
是这两件事之间你如何自处

345
00:12:07,033 --> 00:12:08,033
这个"自处"

346
00:12:08,033 --> 00:12:09,733
才是<寒窑赋>真正的主题

347
00:12:10,466 --> 00:12:10,900
好

348
00:12:10,900 --> 00:12:12,233
现在讲更实用的部分

349
00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:15,466
如果你读懂了这篇文章的缘起结构

350
00:12:15,466 --> 00:12:17,600
你在低谷期应该做什么

351
00:12:17,733 --> 00:12:18,666
我提炼三件事

352
00:12:19,366 --> 00:12:20,033
第一件事

353
00:12:20,333 --> 00:12:21,066
守护种子

354
00:12:21,966 --> 00:12:22,800
在等待期

355
00:12:22,833 --> 00:12:24,300
最容易发生的事情

356
00:12:24,300 --> 00:12:25,800
是你自己毁掉你的种子

357
00:12:26,533 --> 00:12:27,433
怎么毁

358
00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:31,233
怀疑自己、放弃努力、自我打击、转向麻醉

359
00:12:31,833 --> 00:12:33,966
你一旦开始觉得自己是个废物

360
00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:38,300
一旦开始用酒精、刷短视频、无效社交麻醉自己

361
00:12:38,300 --> 00:12:40,533
你实际上是在自己吃掉自己的种子

362
00:12:41,666 --> 00:12:44,166
吕蒙正在寒窑里做的事情是什么

363
00:12:44,333 --> 00:12:44,566
读书

364
00:12:45,533 --> 00:12:46,033
每天读

365
00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:47,633
雪光下读

366
00:12:48,900 --> 00:12:50,033
没有回报

367
00:12:50,066 --> 00:12:50,500
他也读

368
00:12:51,066 --> 00:12:52,600
他不是在等奇迹

369
00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:55,233
他是在守护种子 - 不让种子变质

370
00:12:56,033 --> 00:12:58,533
种子不会因为你没有结果就消失

371
00:12:58,533 --> 00:13:00,900
但它会因为你的自我怀疑而减弱

372
00:13:01,833 --> 00:13:05,233
这是唯识学里的精密观察 - 种子的势能

373
00:13:05,233 --> 00:13:06,566
跟你的意识状态有关

374
00:13:07,266 --> 00:13:08,300
你越笃定

375
00:13:08,333 --> 00:13:08,966
它越稳定

376
00:13:09,700 --> 00:13:10,666
你越动摇

377
00:13:10,700 --> 00:13:11,500
它越稀释

378
00:13:12,033 --> 00:13:13,166
第二件事

379
00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:13,900
识别因缘

380
00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:15,966
等待不是傻等

381
00:13:16,366 --> 00:13:17,200
等待是"观缘"

382
00:13:18,100 --> 00:13:20,133
因缘的网在慢慢编织的时候

383
00:13:20,166 --> 00:13:21,166
它是有信号的

384
00:13:22,266 --> 00:13:25,100
一个新的人出现、一个新的机会冒头

385
00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:30,266
一个新的趋势启动 - 这些信号大部分人看不到

386
00:13:30,266 --> 00:13:33,200
是因为他们的意识被焦虑占满了

387
00:13:33,233 --> 00:13:34,833
没有带宽去扫描现场

388
00:13:35,700 --> 00:13:36,800
佛学讲"观"

389
00:13:36,833 --> 00:13:38,733
不是闭着眼观内心

390
00:13:38,733 --> 00:13:39,900
是睁着眼观外境

391
00:13:40,666 --> 00:13:42,166
你观得够仔细

392
00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:45,366
你就能在因缘将成未成的那一刻

393
00:13:45,366 --> 00:13:47,166
做一个最小的动作

394
00:13:47,166 --> 00:13:48,400
让那张网织得更紧

395
00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:51,500
姜太公不是傻坐在渭水边钓鱼

396
00:13:52,233 --> 00:13:53,633
他用直钩

397
00:13:53,633 --> 00:13:54,766
直钩钓不到鱼

398
00:13:55,533 --> 00:13:56,966
他钓的不是鱼

399
00:13:57,000 --> 00:13:57,533
是文王

400
00:13:58,566 --> 00:14:01,466
他在发信号 - 这里有一个与众不同的人

401
00:14:02,366 --> 00:14:03,700
文王听说了

402
00:14:03,733 --> 00:14:03,900
来了

403
00:14:05,033 --> 00:14:07,500
如果姜太公只是闷头钓鱼

404
00:14:07,533 --> 00:14:09,533
文王不一定会路过

405
00:14:09,533 --> 00:14:11,033
路过也不一定会停

406
00:14:11,833 --> 00:14:12,766
姜太公的等

407
00:14:12,766 --> 00:14:13,966
是带着识别力的等

408
00:14:14,700 --> 00:14:15,866
第三件事

409
00:14:15,866 --> 00:14:16,400
不叙事

410
00:14:16,866 --> 00:14:17,533
这是最难的

411
00:14:18,233 --> 00:14:19,500
人在低谷期

412
00:14:19,500 --> 00:14:20,833
最容易做的事情

413
00:14:20,966 --> 00:14:22,900
就是给自己的处境编一个故事

414
00:14:22,933 --> 00:14:25,100
"我是一个被埋没的天才"

415
00:14:25,100 --> 00:14:28,766
"这个世界对我不公"、"我这辈子就这样了"

416
00:14:29,700 --> 00:14:30,600
这种故事

417
00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:32,066
是最消耗种子的东西

418
00:14:32,766 --> 00:14:34,600
因为一旦你编了故事

419
00:14:34,633 --> 00:14:36,633
你就不再是那颗种子

420
00:14:36,633 --> 00:14:37,833
你变成了那个故事

421
00:14:38,500 --> 00:14:40,200
故事会自我强化

422
00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:41,933
把你锁在一个局部最优里

423
00:14:42,933 --> 00:14:44,766
<寒窑赋>里有一个惊人的东西

424
00:14:45,433 --> 00:14:47,300
作者写完那些际遇之后

425
00:14:47,333 --> 00:14:48,766
没有任何自怜

426
00:14:48,766 --> 00:14:49,766
没有任何控诉

427
00:14:50,533 --> 00:14:51,300
它只是陈述

428
00:14:52,133 --> 00:14:53,200
"时也

429
00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:54,000
命也

430
00:14:54,033 --> 00:14:55,733
运也"这六个字

431
00:14:55,733 --> 00:14:57,766
是一个极其平静的观察

432
00:14:57,766 --> 00:14:58,366
不带情绪

433
00:14:59,233 --> 00:15:00,833
这种"不叙事"的能力

434
00:15:00,866 --> 00:15:02,533
在佛学里叫"如实观"

435
00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:04,266
不加叙述

436
00:15:04,266 --> 00:15:05,500
不加评价

437
00:15:05,533 --> 00:15:07,033
不加自我包装

438
00:15:07,066 --> 00:15:08,666
只是看见正在发生什么

439
00:15:09,433 --> 00:15:10,400
你可以观察自己

440
00:15:11,033 --> 00:15:14,900
当你开始用"我是一个怎样的人"来描述自己的时候

441
00:15:14,933 --> 00:15:16,100
你就已经在叙事了

442
00:15:17,266 --> 00:15:21,166
当你开始反复对别人讲"我这辈子如何如何"的时候

443
00:15:21,233 --> 00:15:23,033
你就在用叙事稀释种子

444
00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:24,933
真正的修行

445
00:15:24,966 --> 00:15:28,900
是把那个叙事者关小声 - 不是关掉你这个人

446
00:15:28,900 --> 00:15:31,700
是关掉那个不停给你讲"你是谁"的旁白

447
00:15:32,633 --> 00:15:33,666
旁白一关

448
00:15:33,700 --> 00:15:36,766
你才第一次看见自己其实是一颗种子

449
00:15:36,766 --> 00:15:37,500
不是一个故事

450
00:15:38,266 --> 00:15:39,500
如实观的人

451
00:15:39,500 --> 00:15:40,833
种子反而最稳定

452
00:15:41,633 --> 00:15:42,266
好

453
00:15:42,266 --> 00:15:43,766
我知道你可能想问一个问题

454
00:15:44,633 --> 00:15:47,333
那吕蒙正难道完全没有主动做什么吗

455
00:15:47,500 --> 00:15:48,566
他只是等吗

456
00:15:48,633 --> 00:15:49,166
当然不是

457
00:15:49,900 --> 00:15:51,966
他做了三件事 - 读书

458
00:15:52,133 --> 00:15:55,166
守护自己的内在状态、在母亲面前尽孝

459
00:15:55,966 --> 00:15:58,100
这三件事都不能直接让他成为宰相

460
00:15:58,833 --> 00:15:59,933
但这三件事

461
00:15:59,933 --> 00:16:00,766
是他能控制的

462
00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:03,233
<寒窑赋>最深的一层

463
00:16:03,266 --> 00:16:06,500
是这个 - 人能做的事情永远是有限的

464
00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:08,833
真正能改变命运的

465
00:16:08,833 --> 00:16:10,833
往往是那些你控制不了的变量

466
00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:13,533
但你控制得了的那些变量

467
00:16:13,533 --> 00:16:16,233
决定了当不可控变量到来时

468
00:16:16,233 --> 00:16:17,500
你是准备好的

469
00:16:17,533 --> 00:16:18,233
还是崩溃的

470
00:16:19,366 --> 00:16:21,800
这就是斯多葛派讲的"控二分法"

471
00:16:22,566 --> 00:16:25,000
这就是道家讲的"无为而无不为"

472
00:16:25,733 --> 00:16:29,133
这就是佛学讲的"尽人事、听天命"的真正内核

473
00:16:29,966 --> 00:16:31,100
不是让你认命

474
00:16:31,133 --> 00:16:34,400
是让你清晰地分清"你能做的"和"你做不了的"

475
00:16:35,333 --> 00:16:36,466
做好能做的

476
00:16:36,500 --> 00:16:37,600
不纠结做不了的

477
00:16:38,266 --> 00:16:39,266
一千年前

478
00:16:39,266 --> 00:16:40,833
一个不知名的作者

479
00:16:40,866 --> 00:16:43,833
借着一个从寒窑爬出来的宰相的名字

480
00:16:43,833 --> 00:16:45,633
写下一篇不到八百字的短文

481
00:16:46,333 --> 00:16:47,833
它没有用一句佛学术语

482
00:16:48,333 --> 00:16:49,800
但它写的每一句话

483
00:16:49,833 --> 00:16:51,100
都是缘起的白话版

484
00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:55,433
它看到的是 - 世界不是一台确定的机器

485
00:16:55,433 --> 00:16:57,600
它是一张持续编织的因缘网

486
00:16:58,366 --> 00:16:59,600
你是网上的一个节点

487
00:17:00,266 --> 00:17:02,766
你能决定自己这个节点的状态

488
00:17:02,766 --> 00:17:05,133
但你不能决定整张网什么时候完成

489
00:17:06,100 --> 00:17:06,933
你能做的

490
00:17:06,966 --> 00:17:08,600
是让自己这个节点

491
00:17:08,633 --> 00:17:10,366
在整张网完成的那一刻

492
00:17:10,500 --> 00:17:12,033
处于最好的准备状态

493
00:17:13,033 --> 00:17:15,233
所以它列出的那些历史人物

494
00:17:15,233 --> 00:17:18,766
不是在说"你看这些人多惨、多戏剧"

495
00:17:18,766 --> 00:17:21,066
它是在说 - 这就是时间的结构

496
00:17:21,566 --> 00:17:22,700
这就是因缘的结构

497
00:17:23,233 --> 00:17:25,966
这就是每一个有种子的人都要经历的

498
00:17:26,233 --> 00:17:27,466
漫长的潜伏

499
00:17:27,500 --> 00:17:28,833
然后一次涌现

500
00:17:29,633 --> 00:17:30,766
理解了这个结构

501
00:17:30,766 --> 00:17:32,133
你再读<寒窑赋>

502
00:17:32,133 --> 00:17:33,500
你会觉得它不丧

503
00:17:33,533 --> 00:17:35,200
反而很安静、很有力量

504
00:17:35,866 --> 00:17:36,533
最后

505
00:17:36,566 --> 00:17:37,633
我想留一个问题给你

506
00:17:38,333 --> 00:17:41,966
你身上此刻是不是有一颗正在等待的种子

507
00:17:42,100 --> 00:17:45,233
它可能已经埋了五年、十年、甚至更久

508
00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:48,233
你偶尔会怀疑它是不是早就烂了

509
00:17:49,366 --> 00:17:50,833
<寒窑赋>给你的答案是

510
00:17:51,500 --> 00:17:55,033
你只需要回答一个问题 - 你现在这个节点

511
00:17:55,033 --> 00:17:56,333
准备好了吗

512
00:17:56,433 --> 00:17:57,933
如果准备好了

513
00:17:57,933 --> 00:17:59,333
网什么时候织完

514
00:17:59,333 --> 00:18:00,166
是网的事情

515
00:18:00,333 --> 00:18:01,133
不是你的事情

516
00:18:01,766 --> 00:18:03,200
如果没准备好

517
00:18:03,233 --> 00:18:04,766
网就算今天织完

518
00:18:04,766 --> 00:18:05,400
你也接不住

519
00:18:06,233 --> 00:18:08,066
欢迎在评论区告诉我

520
00:18:08,066 --> 00:18:10,466
你身上那颗等待的种子是什么

521
00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:14,433
也欢迎告诉我你怎么看"时也、命也

522
00:18:14,633 --> 00:18:17,866
运也"这六个字 - 你觉得它是在认命

523
00:18:17,900 --> 00:18:19,200
还是在识命

524
00:18:19,233 --> 00:18:20,200
我是王利杰

525
00:18:20,333 --> 00:18:21,066
我们下期见

